Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

GDP Shrunk, Record Trade Deficit, and Slower Growth of Inventories

RJS, MarketWatch 666 1st Quarter GDP Shrunk at a 1.4% Rate on a Record Trade Deficit and Slower Growth of Inventories Our economy shrunk at a 1.4% rate in the 1st quarter, the first GDP reversal since the first quarter of 2020, as increased personal consumption of services and greater fixed investment were more than […]

Lackluster spending, a decline in real income and savings in March; when the house price spiral turns, consumers are in real trouble

Lackluster spending, a decline in real income and savings in March; when the house price spiral turns, consumers are in real trouble In March nominal personal income rose 0.5%, and spending rose 1.1%. But since the personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, rose 0.9%, real income declined -0.4%, and real personal spending rose […]

SPR, Oil, and Distillate Supplies Low

RJS, Focus on Fracking Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 20 year low, US oil supplies at a 14 year low; distillates supplies at a 14 year low, total oil + product inventories at an 13½ year low The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US […]

Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated

Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated by New Deal democrat First things first: yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession. I’ve been expecting weakness to show up by now ever since last summer; so here it is. But the big culprits were […]