AB: For the last few months, New Deal democrat has been watching an economy on the brink of a recession. Still not quite there yet. The one factor keeping us above board is AI. A quick explanation why. The pending on AI infrastructure accounts for a large portion of U.S. GDP growth today. Such offsets […]
“Housing permits, starts, and construction: signs of both imminent recession and ‘green shoots’” – by New Deal democrat This morning’s important data on housing construction contained two apparently contradictory trends: on the one hand, it continues to be – even more intensely – consistent with an imminent or ongoing recesssion. On the other hand, it suggests […]
The only solutions being offered up for healthcare in America are political, favoring industry and healthcare. The issue being this form of healthcare is too expensive. Time to take a step back. Merrill Goozner @ GoozNews, “A health care plan for the mid-terms” Americans say health care affordability is their number one pocketbook concern. In […]
– by New Deal democrat As I wrote earlier this week, the positive trend in initial jobless claims is one of the most important data points indicating there is no imminent threat of recession. That continues, but what is increasingly disconcerting is the completely contrary signal from continuing claims. Let’s deal with the weekly numbers first. […]
– by New Deal democrat I suspect we will look back on this morning’s report on jobless claims as the first concrete sign of impending recession. Initial claims rose 18,000 to 241,000, the highest since February 22. The four week moving average rose 5,500 to 226,000. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims rose 83,000 […]
The title is a warning to me. The claim that “this time it’s different” is supposed to be typical of bubbles, but I write it meaning it. I think that this huge increase in the relative price of housing is different. In the past such an increase has been a reliable sign of a bubble. […]
– by New Deal democrat No data today, but since it is mainly a housing week, let me pick up on a topic I discussed at the end of yesterday’s post; namely, if housing does indeed forecast an oncoming recession, what should we expect next in that sector? To cut to the chase, ultimately we […]
Fed Chair Jerome Powell already warned he “may” have two more planned Fed rate increases in the making. Even a Fed comment is enough to stymie a housing market increase. US recession fears ease: surprisingly strong data on housing, consumer confidence, labor market, Financial Review, Vince Golle and Reade Pickert President Joe Biden told donors […]
Industrial production continues to falter in May – by New Deal democrat My final update this morning is for industrial production, the King of Coincident Indicators, which has most frequently corresponded with peaks and troughs in economic activity as determined by the NBER. The news for total production was not good, as it declined -0.2% […]
Initial claims continue in range; why they will give us a lead on when the Sahm rule for recessions may be triggered Initial claims ticked up 2,000 last week to 216,000. The 4 week moving average declined 6,250 to 221,750. Continued claims, with a one week delay, declined 6,000 to 1.670 million: To state the […]