…last week’s number: As usual, the YoY% change is more important for forecasting purposes. And as has been the case almost universally for the past six-eight months, the comparisons are…

…in income in April were an increase in Social Security benefits, up 2.8%, and also proprietors’ incomes, up 1.3%. An important forecasting issue is that typically real spending on goods…

…indicates that the number must be 42.5 or less to signal recession. For forecasting purposes, I use an economically weighted three month average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, with…

…report’s diminished importance, for forecasting purposes, I use an economically weighted three month average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, with a 25% and 75% weighting, respectively. Two months ago,…

…the YoY% changes are more important for forecasting purposes. And as of this week, all three were higher. Initial claims were up by 3.9% YoY, the four week average up…

…jobless claims. Remember that the most important figure for forecasting purposes is the YoY% change. One year ago, initial claims came in at 221,000, the four week average at 225,250,…

…initial and continuing jobless claims, which lead the unemployment rate: With the exception of late July and August, jobless claims have been consistently forecasting an increase of 5% (note: a…

The U.S.-Born labor force will shrink over the next decade: Achieving historically ‘normal’ GDP growth rates will be impossible, unless immigration flows are sustained Economic Policy Institute Reduction of net…

…than five flavors of Chinese. The U.S.-Born labor force will shrink over the next decade: Achieving historically ‘normal’ GDP growth rates will be impossible, unless immigration flows are sustained, Economic…

…shutdown we can recreate the initial and continuing claims data, because it is based on reporting by the States, plus DC, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands. Since my forecasting…