…of the Index of Leading Economic Indicators. Additionally, together with the YoY% change in stock prices they form my “quick and dirty” forecasting tool.  Based on the nearly 60 year…

…2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession), the ISM manufacturing index remains an important indicator with a 75+ year history of accurately describing that sector and forecasting it over…

…for forecasting purposes, initial claims were higher by a mere 0.9%, and for the first time in five months the four-week average was *lower,* by -0.7%. Continuing claims were higher…

…this increase. The sharp increase also showed up in the YoY% changes, which are more important for forecasting purposes. There, initial claims were up 13.6% YoY, the four week average…

…ISM manufacturing index remains an important indicator with a 75+ year history of accurately describing that sector and forecasting it over the short term.  Any number below 50 indicates contraction….

– by New Deal democrat There’s no important economic data today, so this is a good time to write about several important developments in the stock and bond markets. First…

…be 42.5 or less to signal recession. I use an economically weighted three-month average of the manufacturing and non-manufacturing indexes, with a 25% and 75% weighting, respectively, for forecasting purposes….

…forecasting. There, initial claims were up 6.2%, the four week average up 3.0%, and continuing claims up 4.0%: These are all consistent with a slowly expanding economy. Since initial claims…

…in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession), the ISM manufacturing index remains an important indicator with a 75+ year history of accurately describing that sector and forecasting it…

…home sales.  In general they are not that important for forecasting purposes, since they have much less economic impact than new home sales, because the main effect is simply a…