…critique – the relationship between future and past inflation depends on policy and it is hard to believe that actual people would do so poor a job of forecasting as…

…prominent academic economics. I pass on climatology. Checking Wikipedia for the Chicago economics connection I read Silver was born in East Lansing, Michigan, the son of Sally (née Thrun), a…

…at the end of 2006. If the same pattern as the last economic cycle were to hold for this one, JOLTS would show continued deceleration before rolling over into an…

…before the onset of a recession. Geoffrey Moore, who for decades published the Index of Leading Indicators, and in 1993 wrote Leading Economic Indicators: New Approaches and Forecasting Records identified…

…forecasting, it is assumed that the NAWRU is either has a fixed mean or is a nonstationary process without drift. The model used to filter the data and calculate anchored…

…weekly variation on the same, I also have several “alternate” recession forecasting models. The most noteworthy model is really a consumer nowcast. It turns on consumers running out of options…

…with a recession within roughly 12 months. Figure 1 2. the YoY change in the Fed funds rate (inverted in the graph below) also does a very good job forecasting…

…to match it so well using only three explanatory variables one of which is a trend. I explore out of sample forecasting performance and draw conclusions after the jump As…

Refurbishing The Trump Economics Team Rumors are floating on the internet that NEC Chair Lawrence Kudlow is looking for new people to join the team advising President Trump on economics….

…mentioned in an e-mail to a couple of folks this morning, the big thing that bothers me is that ***EVERYONE*** is watching it. And a forecasting tool that everyone pays…