…curve is forecasting, and what most of the rest of the long leading indicators are forecasting, continues. Meanwhile Trump’s tariff “policies” are creating chaos in other sectors. As usual, clicking…

…are forecasting a slowdown due to the re-emergence of the virus and the new shutdowns. But while many states are doing new shutdowns, some places are still in their first…

…He provided his own answers at the end, effectively forecasting.  Many I agree with and some, speculative about tech developments and such like, I have no opinion on.  However, on…

…approach, I am forecasting that the economy will continue to expand broadly over the next 6 months.” So, as fo the end of 2021, what do the coincident indicators look…

…last spring’s stimulus-fueled spending. Just one indicator, and none of my indicator arrays are forecasting recession this spring. But they are forecasting a slowdown by summer, so at very least…

…a leading indicator for the unemployment rate (red in the graph below), here’s what that looks like for the past 18 months: Initial claims are clearly forecasting an increase in…

…economic forecasting, YoY initial claims are up 14.9%. The more important 4 week average is up 8.1%, and continuing claims are up a very big 28.3% The 4 week average…

…growth provides additional information in forecasting inflation and most do not find any additional forecasting ability in models that include wage growth. During the COVID pandemic recovery, there has been…

…On an absolute level, all of this remains very good. The YoY% changes are more important for forecasting purposes. There, for the week initial claims are up 15.9% YoY. However,…

…average declined -5,000 to 224,500. With a one-week delay, continuing claims (gold, right scale) rose 4,000 to 1.688 million: On the YoY basis more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims…