…rose 86,000 to 1.927 million, a nearly 2 year high: On the more important (for forecasting purposes) YoY basis, initial claims were up 2.3%, the 4-week average up 3.5%, and…

…million: Even more importantly for forecasting purposes, the YoY% changes both for the weekly number and the four week average were negative, i.e., lower than one year ago, at -1.9%…

…rose 3,750 to 212,250. With the usual one-week lag, continuing claims declined -23,000 to 1.871 million: For forecasting purposes the YoY% change is more important. YoY weekly claims are down…

…and the MEDC uses to develop economic impact projections is easily and commonly manipulated. Forecasting 20 years of economic impacts is nearly impossible, LaFaive said, and the MEDC’s job projection “strains…

…their second highest reading in over 2 years (but remains extremely low compared with the 40 years before the pandemic): On the more important YoY basis for forecasting purposes, both…

…is nevertheless a very low rate, only exceeded to the downside by 2005-07 and 2022, indicating continued vulnerability to an adverse shock. One of my forecasting models uses such a…

…the last 40 years of the 20th century. Which isn’t that helpful. For forecasting purposes, there are two more important points. 1. The ECRI method that uses nominal long term…

…percent threshold in the previous week. As of today, Trump’s chances sit at 61.3 percent. Several other folks are in the probabilistic forecasting game to include FiveThirtyEight, The Hill, The Economist, Brown Political Review, Race…

…economic forecasting purposes. Finally, we do get the monthly jobs report next week, so let’s update our look at jobless claims vs. the unemployment rate. Recall that for 60 years,…

– by New Deal democrat This week is another light one for economic data, so let me discuss a couple of points explaining why I am cautious, but not DOOOMing….