…seasonally adjusted number can also be estimated closely. Further, since my forecasting method relies on the YoY% changes, it is almost never an affected by that seasonality.  So tabulated, for the week ending…

…seasonally adjusted number can also be estimated closely. Further, since my forecasting method relies on the YoY% changes, it is almost never an affected by that seasonality.  So tabulated, for the week ending…

…estimated closely as well. Indeed, since my forecasting method relies on the YoY% changes, it is almost never an affected by that seasonality.  So tabulated, for the week ending November 2, unadjusted initial…

…my forecasting method relies on the YoY% changes, it is almost never an affected by that seasonality.  So tabulated, for the week ending November 8, unadjusted initial claims totaled 237,712 vs. 230,810 in…

…my forecasting purposes. Just for example, a 260,000 number would have been great in the 1990s or 2000s, but would be very worrisome now. And in that regard, initial claims…

…the year, and then decline in the last six months.  Now let’s look at the YoY% changes which are more important for forecasting pursposes: Initial claims were down -8.0%, but…

…forecasting purposes. So measured, initial claims were down -9.1%, the four week average down -7.9%, and continuing claims down -1.3%: These are simply very positive numbers, totally inconsistent with any…

…more important for forecasting purposes, initial claims were down -1.8%, the four week moving average down -6.1%, and continuing claims down -3.1%: This is very positive – in fact, jobless…

– by New Deal democrat The drought of significant official economic data continues today, but this is a good time to update my forecast for the effect of the spike…

…that rounded to 0.2% and 0.4% respectively: Two important forecasting tools I use are real nonsupervisory hourly wages (blue in the graphs below) and real aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls (red). The…