Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

GDP Shrunk, Record Trade Deficit, and Slower Growth of Inventories

RJS, MarketWatch 666 1st Quarter GDP Shrunk at a 1.4% Rate on a Record Trade Deficit and Slower Growth of Inventories Our economy shrunk at a 1.4% rate in the 1st quarter, the first GDP reversal since the first quarter of 2020, as increased personal consumption of services and greater fixed investment were more than […]

Lackluster spending, a decline in real income and savings in March; when the house price spiral turns, consumers are in real trouble

Lackluster spending, a decline in real income and savings in March; when the house price spiral turns, consumers are in real trouble In March nominal personal income rose 0.5%, and spending rose 1.1%. But since the personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, rose 0.9%, real income declined -0.4%, and real personal spending rose […]

SPR, Oil, and Distillate Supplies Low

RJS, Focus on Fracking Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 20 year low, US oil supplies at a 14 year low; distillates supplies at a 14 year low, total oil + product inventories at an 13½ year low The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA US oil data from the US […]

Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated

Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated by New Deal democrat First things first: yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession. I’ve been expecting weakness to show up by now ever since last summer; so here it is. But the big culprits were […]

Medicare vs Commercial Insurance Pricing 2012 – 2019

Copy and Paste for now until I can get into the Health Affairs article. Hospitalization averages a third of all healthcare costs. The pricing (Pricing equals costs in this instance) varies by region which kind of tells me there “may” be variation due to the strength of ACOs in regions. Trends in Hospital Prices Varied […]

Jobless claims: yet another 50+ year low in continuing claims

Jobless claims: yet another 50+ year low in continuing claims [Programming note: I’ll comment on the Q1 GDP report later]. Initial jobless claims declined -5,000 to 180,000, but above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average rose 2,250 to 179,250, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set […]