Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated

Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated by New Deal democrat First things first: yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession. I’ve been expecting weakness to show up by now ever since last summer; so here it is. But the big culprits were […]

Medicare vs Commercial Insurance Pricing 2012 – 2019

Copy and Paste for now until I can get into the Health Affairs article. Hospitalization averages a third of all healthcare costs. The pricing (Pricing equals costs in this instance) varies by region which kind of tells me there “may” be variation due to the strength of ACOs in regions. Trends in Hospital Prices Varied […]

Jobless claims: yet another 50+ year low in continuing claims

Jobless claims: yet another 50+ year low in continuing claims [Programming note: I’ll comment on the Q1 GDP report later]. Initial jobless claims declined -5,000 to 180,000, but above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average rose 2,250 to 179,250, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set […]

Coronavirus dashboard for April 27: Estimating the BA.2.12.1 wave

Coronavirus dashboard for April 27: Estimating the BA.2.12.1 wave The CDC updated its variant proportions data yesterday. BA.2.12.1 cases grew from 19% to 29% of all US cases:  and from 45% to 60% in NY and NJ. At the other end of the spectrum, BA.2.12.1 was only 9% of cases in the Pacific Northwest and […]

The politics of student debt forgiveness

Progressives have been pressuring President Biden to forgive student debt using existing administrative authority.  Calls have gotten louder as Democrats become more concerned about their weak position going into the November mid-terms.  Supporters of debt relief point to polls showing support for relief, especially among younger voters that the Democrats need to mobilize.  There are […]

Student Loan Debt Forgiveness

I was reading the commentary on student loan forgiveness since Joe Biden has said he would do something. It is not going to be $50,000 in forgiveness as Senators Warren, Sanders, and Schumer are pushing. Biden has said it is unlikely it will be this amount. Indeed, he suggested $10,000. The $10,000 might be worthy […]