The impact of supply constraints on the US economy in 3 easy graphs The two most important purchases ever made by most consumers are (1) their houses, followed by (2) their motor vehicles. Indeed, according to Prof. Edward Leamer‘s forecasting model, ever since the end of World War 2 almost all American recessions have been […]
RJS, MarketWatch 666 Summary: Construction Spending Rose 0.1% in March after Prior Months Were Revised Higher The Census Bureau’s report on construction spending for March (pdf) estimated that the month’s seasonally adjusted construction spending would work out to $1,730.5 billion annually if extrapolated over an entire year, which was 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* above the revised annualized February […]
In midday trading, the Dow Jones industrial average slumping 3.3 percent. The S&P 500 index sinking 165 points, or 3.8 percent. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was losing biggly, giving back 651 points, or 5 percent. I am not looking at investments today. The drop was wiping out the gains from the previous session’s massive rally. All […]
Letters from an American May 4, 2022, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson Overturning Roe v. Wade The uproar over the leaked draft of the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade continues. You can tell just how furious the reaction has been by the fact that establishment Republicans are desperately trying to turn the public conversation to the […]
Taiwan says new Harpoon missiles will help it crush half of Chinese invasion fleet Taiwan says US$2.37 billion worth of Harpoon missiles would enable it to obliterate half of Chinese invasion armada “TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — Taiwan’s military on Oct. 27 [2020] stated that the potential sale of US$2.37 billion worth of Harpoon anti-ship missiles […]
March JOLTS report: the game of musical chairs in the jobs market intensifies to all-time highs In March, as this morning’s Census Bureau JOLTS report shows, the game of musical job chairs in the jobs market has actually intensified to all-time levels. Specifically, both job openings and quits made all-time highs, and total separations during […]
Assuming the Supreme Court issues a sweeping opinion overruling Roe, how will this affect the upcoming midterm elections? This question is being widely examined, e.g., here, here, here. My take is that the key issue is whether the personal stories of women (and teenagers) affected by abortion restrictions get told. First, a brief review of […]
Manufacturing and construction start out the month with positive prints As per usual, the new month starts with updates on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. This remained positive, but there has been a definite slowing in the […]
As CNN reports . . . “Sen. Susan Collins: Referencing the Supreme Court draft opinion overturning Roe v. Wade (Politico) is ‘completely inconsistent’ with what Justice Neil Gorsuch and Justice Brett Kavanaugh ‘said in their hearings and in our meetings in my office.’” Wow, whata surprise! Political appointees to SCOTUS might fib a little, ok more than […]