What effect will over-ruling Roe have on public opinion and the mid-term elections?
Assuming the Supreme Court issues a sweeping opinion overruling Roe, how will this affect the upcoming midterm elections? This question is being widely examined, e.g., here, here, here. My take is that the key issue is whether the personal stories of women (and teenagers) affected by abortion restrictions get told.
First, a brief review of public opinion:
Most Americans do not want to see Roe overruled. The split is about 60/30. People also believe that the decision to terminate a pregnancy should be left to a woman and her doctor (75%), rather than regulated by law (20%). On the other hand, Americans are evenly split on whether they consider themselves to be “pro-life” or “pro-choice”, and support for abortion drops from 60% in the first trimester to 28% in the second trimester to 13% in the final trimester. Support for abortion rights is strongest – 75% to 80% – in cases of rape, incest, serious fetal defect, and threat to the mother’s health.
What lessons should we take from this?
The fact that most Americans do not want to see Roe overruled is probably not enough to give the Democrats a significant boost at the polls. However, there is little doubt that some Republican legislatures will push restrictions that go far beyond the bounds of both basic human decency and public opinion.
What remains to be seen is whether the stories of the girls and women affected are told. If Republicans force girls raped by their step-fathers to carry their pregnancies to term, if women die or suffer because they cannot get treatment for ectopic pregnancies and other life-threatening conditions, if women are prosecuted for miscarriages or forced to give birth to unviable fetuses, then the backlash could be strong. Attempts to prosecute doctors and midwives, to limit the right to travel, or to impose liability on people who try to help desperate women or teenagers access care could also backfire.
The future of abortion rights and possibly the 2022 election will depend on whether journalists and advocates can make the inhumanity of draconian abortion restrictions visible to voters, on a human level.
Mid-term elections always had low turnouts. I believe this may be the catalyst Dems needed to get out the vote, especially women.
– I believe if it is found out Repubs leaked Alito’s strongly worded (abortionists used to describe doctors, etc.) decision to sway a SCOTUS vote, this may play a part also.
– Two and maybe three of the latest appointees to the court said Roe V Wade was decided and they would not interfere. Didn’t matter, they voted to repeal R v W.
– Alito has not been a friend to women’s rights and has a long history (pre-SCOTUS) of decisions impacting women.
Democrats needed a catalyst. Whoever released the document, McConnell’s whining, the wording of the majority decision may very well provide a reason to vote in November. People are pissed . . . And can they keep up the anger? Women will and moreso then men.
I suspect no impact. There’s a narrative that this will cause a backlash, but I think that is just another version of the silent majority fallacy.
People vote for what they want, and the Republicans haven’t been trying to fool anyone on this issue.
true, but there has been an unspoken support for it (as many supporters end up having them too…but go back to the way they were before). in the past the GOP only pushed it for political reason, but like a dog that catches the rabbit, they arent really sure what to do. and the backlash will be real, just may not matter, as many places have set it up so that politicians pick their voters, so while the results wont be a over whelming as before, they will eek out a win anyway. course voters might be voting for they want, but may only part of what any candidate says
I also think it will have a minor impact. And the leak may have helped Republicans by getting it out now, maybe almost two months before the actual decision.
The voters of Maine really need to re think their priorities. If Sara Gideon had beaten Susan Collins in 2020, we would never have heard of Joe Manchin.
Polling on the term “pro-life” seems almost pointless. To someone who would not choose abortion, but who would not restrict someone else from choosing it, “pro-life” would not mean the same thing as to someone who thinks abortions should be illegal.
Two questions, two answers.
First: Polls don’t matter so no one cares.
Second: None. Not one single Rep voter will change their voting habits because of this ruling. Especially not women GOP voters. They drank the Kool-Aid a long time ago.
and while the GOP voter may or may not change who they vote for. it will wake up Democrat voters. but other than state wide offices (US senators, governors. etc), in many states it doesnt really matter what voters want, the ‘district’ they are in is gerrymandered to the point that it doesnt matter much
many states have become one party states. and even if the opposing party gets over 50% of all votes in the state, that wont matter
not really on topic, but i heard on my local public radio station out of Kent State this AM that Trump endorsed candidates swept the Ohio Republican primaries yesterday, beating better known businessmen for the Senate nod, and in one case knocking out two long serving staunch conservatives…if Ohio is any kind of bellweather, we might see Marjorie Taylor Greene as the next House speaker…
His endorsements came really late. Did he actually swing the result, or did he just pick the frontrunners?
i don’t know, cause i don’t follow politics at all…but NPR certainly left me with the impression that Trump’s endorsements were a factor…
It won’t be just this decision as there will be more from the Opus Dei/religious orthodox adherents that now form a solid majority. They have power now and will be unafraid to exercise it couched in legalese but grounded in orthodox papal doctrines. This is the opening salvo and they are ready to undermine equality and re-establish the “moral” religious righteousness of a century ago. That leaves Thomas and Bartlett in a seemingly contrary spot but not it’s not as they are doing “god’s work.”
With a solid majority they will be able to pick and choose cases that will meet their goals. With Alito’s sweeping disregard for stare decisis not only in this case but other cases such as Janus where Alito swept away 41 years of legal precedent that was not to his liking the stage is set. The intolerant majority now has its framework embedded and will not hesitate to legalize their religious agenda under the new doctrine of fundamental rights/pre-1970’s history & traditions as the guiding principals in their decision-making. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if they backed things up another decade or so and got rid of civil rights that don’t suit their beliefs. Look what they already accomplished with Hobby Lobby (another Alito doozey) and Little Sisters of the Poor using the 2nd Amendment as a touchstone to elevate not just the employer’s religious beliefs but attenuations of those beliefs that do not directly impact the believer but deprive their employees of a legal right. Imagine the possibilities!
What if these same employers determine it is a violation of their religious beliefs to hire nonbelievers or worse gay individuals making them “complicit” in a violation of their beliefs in order to comply with the civil rights act?
The plan is to use the Bill of Rights to undermine the rights of the unbelievers, the unworthy, women in general and anyone else not of their ilk. If it ain’t in the Bill of Rights or specifically addressed in the Constitution it’s in jeopardy including but not limited to the “lesser” amendments.
Sounds crazy and it is; but with Opus Dei it’s a no brainer.
Do Americans Support Abortion Rights?
NY Times – Nate Cohn – May 4
Perhaps it is time for MacKenzie Scott and Melinda Gates to get involved in politics.
I’d like to believe it matters that in the Ohio primaries of a couple of days ago, the winning Dem primary candidate received more votes than the wining GOP guy.
Tucker, Thiel and Trump: How J.D. Vance won in Ohio.
NY Times – May 5
(Tim Ryan, Dem: 355K votes; JD Vance, GOP: 341K)
I would like to think it is a sign of things to come.
GOP Votes: 1,059,133
Dem Votes: 510,362
Perhaps all those GOP voters who dislike Vance will be sitting this one out, or even voting for the Dem guy out of spite. They seem to be very spiteful.
Senator Susan Collins says she is opposed to Democrats’ bill aimed at protecting abortion rights
Boston Globe – May 6
“fails to protect antiabortion providers from having to perform the procedure.” Well, isn’t that special.
She’s just showing her limited understanding of “freedom”. Typically from the selfish position that is the Republican/Conservative persona. Trying hard to walk that knife edge.
One thing this potential ruling is doing that I’m not hearing being talked about is “states rights”. That has been the main push on the right. The abortion issue is just the vehicle to embed this concept into our legal structure. They really want to this in order to undo the regulatory state. This is just as important as the right to privacy the ruling is raising.
(Susan Collins is) just showing her limited understanding of “freedom”. Typically from the selfish position that is the Republican/Conservative persona.
Susan Collins showing her limited understanding of ‘freedom’?
Not really. Susan Collins is of the Roman Catholic faith, and is showing her right-to-life point-of-view, which guides her position on this issue, apparently.
the Catholic Church remains the largest organized religion in Maine, with some 143 of every 1,000 Mainers belonging to one of the state’s 55 parishes, according to that 2010 census. (Bangor Daily News – March 31, 2015)