Initial claims continue weakening trend, but are not signaling recession this year Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 (from an upwardly revised 233,000), to 231,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average rose further, by 7,250 to 231,750, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 twelve weeks […]
June 29, 2022, Letters from an American, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson ~~~~~~~ What is up in this Letter?: The House Select Committee is considering to call “Pat” Cipollone to testify. Republican pundits are calling Cassidy Hutchinson’s testimony devastating. Ginni is having second thoughts on discussing her “boilerplate and unremarkable” comments. A Ukrainian-born businessman is sentenced […]
The silver standard, one hundred and Thirty pieces of Silver’s thought “In evaluating fundraising for congressional candidates, the model now places more emphasis on contributions received within the candidate’s state. Fundraising is a highly nationalized activity these days; Democrats in California and New York regularly contribute to Senate campaigns like that of Democrat Jaime Harrison of […]
The Democrats seem to be a bit uncertain about how to respond to the Dobbs ruling overturning Roe. This isn’t surprising. They face enormous pressure from their voters to “do something”, but there is, in fact, little they can do that will materially improve the situation of pregnant women in the short term. Despite the […]
RJS: MarketWatch 666 Summary: modest revision. The internals were revised as much as I’ve ever seen. PCE growth from 3.1% to 1.8%, real gross private domestic investment growth from 0.5% to 5.0%. Mostly due to greater inventories. Those 1st quarter inventories set up the 2nd quarter for a fall. ~~~~~~~ 1st Quarter GDP Revised to Show Our Economy Shrunk […]
Two long leading indicators – real money supply and credit conditions – worsen – by New Deal democrat ~~~~~~~ M1 and M2 money supply for May was reported yesterday by the Fed. The former was unchanged for the month, and the latter was up a tiny 0.1%: That is significant. Why? Because real money supply […]
I have a post up at Science-Based Medicine about the pitfalls and dangers of moralistic political thinking. The focus is on COVID, but the lessons are much more broadly relevant. Here’s the lede: The American policy response to COVID left a great deal to be desired. Figuring out what went wrong and how to do […]
House prices continued to surge through April; expect no meaningful moderation in the CPI anytime soon House price increases continued to go through the roof as of April, as reported this morning in both the Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes. The Case Shiller national index rose another 2.1% for the month and 20.4% […]
“A few thoughts on the abortion ruling,” by INFIDEL753 There’s no longer any room to pretend that the Supreme Court is a mere non-political referee interpreting the law in a vacuum. If it ever was that, it’s now just another locus of political power, like the House, Senate, and presidency, a utensil for imposing the […]