Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

May existing home sales show prices stabilizing, inventory continuing to increase towards its historical range

 – by New Deal democrat The first part of this week is all about more housing data. This morning started out with  existing home sales, which although they typically constitute about 90% of all sales are the least important for forecasting purposes, since the main thing that happens is only a change in ownership, and therefore they […]

What’s he hiding in there?

To follow up on my previous post; “WASHINGTON (Reuters) -Tesla told U.S. regulators that all of its answers to questions on the safety of its robotaxi deployment in Texas are confidential business information and should not be made public, according to a letter released Monday.” Because the safety of Tesla’s stock price will be endangered. […]

It’s a casino

“(Reuters) -Tesla shares jumped 10% on Monday, lifted by the long-awaited launch of the company’s robotaxi service that CEO Elon Musk has for years championed as a key driver of the electric vehicle maker’s lofty valuation. “The automaker deployed a small fleet of self-driving taxis in Austin, Texas, on Sunday, marking the first time its […]

“Economic expansions don’t die of old age; they are murdered” usually by domestic or geopolitical exogenous shocks

 – by New Deal democrat There is an old saying that “economic expansions don’t die of old age. They are murdered.”  I have been writing about the economy, and examining all sorts of leading, coincident, and lagging indicators, for 20 years; and the longer time goes on, the truer that saying appears. My most recent examination […]

Expiring Government Covid Programs Causes Decreasing SPM

The United States already had the highest rate of child poverty compared to other wealthy, developed nations. According to the most recent data from the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD). The U.S. child poverty rate was 20.8 percent, and the average for similar countries excluding the United States was 11.2 percent using data […]

Distributional Impact of H.R. 1

A quick run-down on Trump and Republican’s H.R. 1 bill. This has already passed in the House and is now at the Senate for consideration. There may be some changes and resistance yet. There is a widespread agreement the most vulnerable will take the biggest hit, and it is by design. Under H.R. 1, the […]

The robotaxis that aren’t

Musk’s SpaceX rockets explode, sometimes on the launch pad. Now, Musk’s promise of Tesla robotaxis has also exploded. “Tesla’s much-anticipated June 22 “no one in the vehicle” “unsupervised” Robotaxi launch in Austin is not ready. Instead, Tesla has announced to its invite-only passengers that it will operate a limited service with Tesla employees on board […]

Population Growth . . . With and Without Immigration

In 2006 Joel Garreau wrote “300 Million and Counting” in the Smithsonian. It was then we were at a replacement rate of 2.01. The nation was barely replacing itself.  November 20, 1967, the population of the United States passed 200 million. It had taken ~29 years to add 100 million more people to the US […]

US Global Popularity Declines Along with Trump’s

Along with the return of trump, the United States popularity is in decline. U.S. President Donald Trump receives mostly negative ratings in a new Pew Research Center survey of 24 nations. More than half in 19 of these countries say they lack confidence in Trump’s leadership in world affairs-Pew. I would suggest not traveling globally […]

Resistance to ICE

“Bishop Pham, himself a Vietnamese refugee as a child, said ICE agents were “standing there covered with masks as we walked toward the courtroom. Eventually the … agents kind of scattered and went away.” Bishop shames ICE Probably the best use of a Roman Catholic bishop that has occurred in my lifetime. “A growing group […]