Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Industrial and manufacturing production mixed, but also consistent with the end of front-running

 – by New Deal democrat Today’s second report was for industrial production, including its important manufacturing component.  The data for May was mixed, as total production (blue) declined -0.2%, while manufacturing production (red) increased 0.1% In March I wrote that “I suspect the big increases in February and March in manufacturing, like this morning’s retail […]

Thought there wasn’t a healthcare insurance angle to Trump’s dictator gambit in Los Angeles? Guess again

No pay. no healthcare insurance, no rack to sleep in and probably no mess hall meals somewhere. I am going to guess their being federalized grants them access to regular Army healthcare. Still does not take care of family. Civilian authorities always like the help of Federal Detachments until it comes time to provide essentials. […]

May real retail sales: the front-running of tariffs is over

 – by New Deal democrat We can safely say that the front-running of tariffs is over. As usual, real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it tells us so much about consumers, and since consumption leads employment, it gives us information about the trend in that as well. And this morning’s report for […]

Tariffs Result in a Delayed Fed Rate Decrease

Trump is tossing a hissy because “The FED” has decided to delay any decreases of the FED Rate. Which in my limited opinion of what is going on with a loose cannon government directed by a rogue president is a wise decision. Trump and politicians are not the ones who will bear the brunt of […]

Updating the nonfinancial long leading indicators, plus several important short leading ones

 – by New Deal democrat Since a couple of years ago, I temporarily suspended my updating of the long leading indicators. That is because their negative slant in 2022 was completely overcome by the hurricane force tailwind of the unspooling supply chain kinks. By that time the Fed had already raised rates more steeply than at […]

I agree with RFK Jr.

Though it feels weird to say it, RFK Jr and I agree on something: curtailing direct-to-consumer marketing of pharmaceuticals. “The Trump administration is discussing policies that would make it harder and more expensive for pharmaceutical companies to advertise directly to patients, in a move that could disrupt more than $10 billion in annual ad spending. […]

Cuts to Medicaid Threaten Access to Healthcare

Usually, this type of information is pages long and I end up boiling it down, editing it, and sometimes rewriting portions (shhh, do not tell anyone). This report by the AHA is straight forward in what it presents. In fact, Angry Bear has presented information on rural hospitals as detailed by the CHQPR here, here, […]

Britain beware!

As a businessman, Trump left a long list of bankruptcies, failed businesses and legal penalties in his wake. Making a “deal” with Trump is risky, at best. Trump has personalized American trade policy. It’s no long what’s good for America, it’s who Trump does or doesn’t “like.”| “Trump also seemed to put a greater priority […]

Medicaid and ACA Cuts Will Increase Costs for Older Adults and Medicare

As taken from Health Affairs. This report magnifies the impact of Trump and the Republican piece of garbage healthcare bill. A bill which targets those who have low income, are older, and make more than the 400-percent-of-the-federal-poverty-level subsidy cliff. The subsidy increase about 500% FPL was to help more people, families, and older people qualify […]