Existing home sales: the freight train of price appreciation rolls on Although existing home sales are less economically important than new home sales, what has been happening with their prices, given the experience of the housing bubble and bust 15 years ago, is of added importance. The simple summary is that sales have declined substantially, […]
Jean-Paul loved Simone as he could never love anyone else; gave her his heart and, with some great effort, won hers. Simone, she wasn’t one to be particular. Both he and she were Existentialists. Albert, an Absurdist, and Jean-Paul were friends. Simone fell for Albert on first sight. Absurd or not; big minds attract. Absurd […]
Tariffs and Inflation Kevin Quinn, Econospeak Jason Furman and Janet Yellen have both suggested that cutting Trump’s tariffs would be anti-inflationary. But most economists agree that the incidence of the tariffs is for the most part on US consumers, not foreign suppliers (pace the treasonous and ignorant former president, who crowed about all the revenues we […]
Weekly Indicators for June 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. My paradigm is: first the long leading indicators turn. Then the short leading indicators turn. Then the coincident indicators turn. Finally the lagging indicators turn. For months I have been documenting the downturn […]
Positive production print points to continued economic expansion in May The usual suspects are out, claiming that a recession has either already started or is imminent. Well, the big reason I call industrial production the King of Coincident Indicators is because empirically is the one whose peaks and troughs coincide most definitively with NBER recession […]
An across the board downturn for housing permits and starts in May Housing permits and starts declined across the board in May. In the past year there has been a unique divergence between permits and starts due to construction supply shortages. This has been reflected in the number of housing units authorized but not started […]
The increasing trend in new jobless claims continues Initial jobless claims declined -3,000 to 229,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average also rose 2,750 to 218,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 ten weeks ago. Continuing claims rose 3,000 to 1,312,000, or 6,000 above […]
Negative May and YoY real retail sales add to the foreboding signals of a recession next year Nominal retail sales for the month of May declined -0.3%, and April was revised down by -0.2% to +0.7%. This reduces April’s number, after inflation to +0.4%, followed by a “real” decline in May of -1.2% after rounding. […]
“New Auto Emissions Rules Have a Loophole You Can Drive a Light-Duty Truck Through” (treehugger.com), Lloyd Alter, December 2021 ~~~~~~~~ President Biden and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have revised the existing greenhouse gas emissions standards for passenger cars and light-duty trucks. Rolling back in four years the rollbacks the Trump administration implemented to change […]
On the road, and missing all the fun on Wall Street . . . I’m still on the road, and there is no important economic statistic to report, but I will make a brief market comment. YoY stocks are now down 10%. Except for the very bad 1982 and 2008 recessions, and the 2000 Nasdaq […]