For the last several months, there has has been nearly a relentless slow increase in new jobless claims. That trend broke, at least for this week.
Initial jobless claims declined by 2,000 to 250,000. More importantly, the 4 week average also declined by 2,750 to 246,750. Continuing claims rose 7,000 to 1,437,000, the highest since April:
Claims have been on track to turn higher YoY in November, which would signal an imminent recession; but with this week’s report that trend *may* be breaking – to the good side.