Jobless claims make new pandemic lows at last New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether, as the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and social activities […]
Seconding Paul Krugman: inflationary pressures will be a transient phenomenon in 2021 (but will they cause a recession in 2022?) – by New Deal democrat Paul Krugman argues once’s again this morning that any increase in inflation this year as part of a post-pandemic boom will be transitory: I agree. I want to elaborate on one […]
Economic data and coronavirus quick hits I really need to rouse myself to write a long-form piece on interest rates, housing, and the economy to post over at Seeking Alpha. Ugh! In the meantime, here are a few quick hits on some important or noteworthy new data. 1. New home sales – interest rates bite, […]
Naked Capitalism had an article up in the “Links” assortment of other articles taken from various sites. The Common Dreams article touched upon one of the topics I write about and have done so over the last decade – Student Loans and Alan Collinge’s Student Loan Justice Org. In my public discussions with Alan and […]
Coronavirus dashboard for March 22: crossing an important threshold, to the *good* side The US is on the verge of crossing an important threshold: as of today, the 7 day average of COVID 19 deaths in the US has declined to exactly 1000: The last time the US averaged less than 1000 deaths a week […]
Commenter r. j. s. at MarketWatch666 Retail Sales Fell 3.0% in February After January Sales Were Revised 1.9% Higher Seasonally adjusted retail sales decreased 3.0% in February after retail sales for January were revised 1.9% higher . . . the Advance Retail Sales Report for February (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our seasonally adjusted retail […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for March 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Both the nowcast and the short term forecast continue to be red hot. But interest rates continue to batter the long term forecast. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up […]
Larry Summer is still criticizing the American Recovery Plan. Summers: In his latest attack on the recent rush of stimulus, Summers told David Westin on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” that “what was kindling, is now igniting” given the recovery from Covid will stoke demand pressure at the same time as fiscal policy has been […]
Disappointing weekly increase in new jobless claims, but monthly trend improves; expect a 200,000+ number of new jobs in next Employment Report – by New Deal democrat New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether my suspicion is […]
Big (weather related) declines in February production and sales This morning (Tuesday) we got the most important single metrics for both the consumer and producer side of the economy for February, respectively, retail sales and industrial production. Both were big misses, one explicitly and the other likely due to the big freeze in Texas and […]