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Coronavirus dashboard for June 17: big progress since 1 year ago; big “Delta” challenge still ahead

Coronavirus dashboard for June 17: big progress since 1 year ago; big “Delta” challenge still ahead

One year ago today, in my Coronavirus Dashboard for June 17, here was my graph of cases



Which I described as:

As shown in the graph above, [after Arizona at 214 per million population] the remaining “top 10” are all States in the Confederacy, High Plains, and Mountain West. In order, (showing rates of new infections per million as of June 15 in parentheses) they are: Alabama (156), Arkansas (150), South Carolina (125), Louisiana (127), North Carolina (117), Utah (102), Mississippi (98), Florida (83), and Iowa (83).

One year later, the scale of the current pandemic is an order or more of magnitude lower. But the regions with the worst outbreaks remain the same (sadly, ingrained behavior patterns are incredibly resistant to change).
Let’s begin the current situation with CNN’s graph of vaccination rates in the 50 States plus DC and PR:

Coronavirus dashboard for June 7: a Tale of Two Pandemics: the Vaccinated States vs. the Idiotic States

Coronavirus dashboard for June 7: a Tale of Two Pandemics: the Vaccinated States vs. the Idiotic States

The drive towards “herd immunity” via vaccination has slowed to a crawl. The slowing is almost entirely driven by Trump-voting States in the South and West. Those Idiotic States are continuing to suffer from an ongoing pandemic, while in the Biden-voting States of the Northeast, Midwest, and California, the pandemic has all but ended.
Here are the details.


Daily vaccinations have declined precipitously in the past 7 weeks, and are now only about 1 million per day:



If the US were to stay at 1 million per day, it would take the rest of the year to get everyone vaccinated. And unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that the rate of new vaccinations won’t continue to decline.


As a result, as shown in the graph below, there is every reason to believe that the US will tip out at roughly 60% of the population having received at least one dose, and only 50% fully vaccinated (note this includes all children including those under 12 for whom the vaccines have not been approved). (For the record, I still think we will achieve 70%+ of all adults having immunity between vaccinations plus those previously infected with antibodies).

A Recent Correlation Regarding Political “Leadership” And The Coronavirus

A Recent Correlation Regarding Political “Leadership” And The Coronavirus

 The recent correlation I have noticed, with others commenting on it also, is that some of the most prominent nations with the most rapidly rising rates of coronavirus infections are led by somewhat authoritarian leaders who have recently dismissed the threat of it and engaged in policies that may have encouraged its spread.  The most dramatic examples are India, Brazil, and the Philippines.  

Last year India did not do too badly. It had only one wave, which was pretty well controlled by vigorous lockdown policies that sent many migrant workers from cities to villages. Increasingly authoritarian Indian prime minister, Narendra Modi, he who is imposing Hindutva on the nation and suppressing various dissident voices. This apparent success led to a lot of complacency, with this marked by Modi holding mass rallies prior to upcoming elections, especially a sensitive one in West Bengal where Modi’s BJP is trying to take control of the state government.  But now there has been a dramatic outbreak of the coronavirus, setting records for the most infections in a day of any nation, topping 400,000. Reports have it that hospitals are overwhelmed, and Modi is facing serious criticism.