Coronavirus dashboard for June 7: a Tale of Two Pandemics: the Vaccinated States vs. the Idiotic States
Coronavirus dashboard for June 7: a Tale of Two Pandemics: the Vaccinated States vs. the Idiotic States
The drive towards “herd immunity” via vaccination has slowed to a crawl. The slowing is almost entirely driven by Trump-voting States in the South and West. Those Idiotic States are continuing to suffer from an ongoing pandemic, while in the Biden-voting States of the Northeast, Midwest, and California, the pandemic has all but ended.
Here are the details.
Daily vaccinations have declined precipitously in the past 7 weeks, and are now only about 1 million per day:
If the US were to stay at 1 million per day, it would take the rest of the year to get everyone vaccinated. And unfortunately, there is no reason to believe that the rate of new vaccinations won’t continue to decline.
As a result, as shown in the graph below, there is every reason to believe that the US will tip out at roughly 60% of the population having received at least one dose, and only 50% fully vaccinated (note this includes all children including those under 12 for whom the vaccines have not been approved). (For the record, I still think we will achieve 70%+ of all adults having immunity between vaccinations plus those previously infected with antibodies).
The distribution of the population who have been vaccinated vs. unvaccinated is hardly random. As shown in the below map, the South and interior West almost uniformly have lower vaccination rates than the Pacific Coast, Midwest, and Northeast:
And this completely non-random pattern is very apparent when we break down new COVID cases by region.
The best region is the Northeast:
All States except for Maine and Pennsylvania are below an average of 40 cases per 100,000 per day, and the worst State – Maine – is at 5.2. Half of the States are close to or under 2 per 100,000 per day, which is a pandemic that is well under control.
The next best region is the Midwest, plus Maine for comparison:
Nebraska and South Dakota are also under 2 cases per 100,000 per day. I suspect herd immunity via the large number of already infected people comes into play in those States. Only Missouri and Indiana have a higher rate of cases than Maine. And all of the States, except for Missouri (also highlighted) continue on a downward trajectory.
The next best region is the South, plus Maine and Missouri for comparison:
Maryland and Virginia are close to or under 2 per 100,000 per day. About half of the remaining States in the region show a *slowly* declining trajectory, but have fewer cases per capita than Maine. The other half, including the large State of Florida, show a pandemic that is ongoing. I have also highlighted West Virginia, which aside from the last observation, is the worst of the lot.
Finally, we come to the West, which is the worst-performing region, plus Maine, Missouri, and West Virginia for comparison:
California is very close to 2 per 100,000 per day. Several other States are lower than Maine. But most are worse than Missouri, and 3 – surprisingly including Colorado (which is nevertheless clearly in a declining trend) and Washington State (which may finally be declining) – are worse than West Virginia. Wyoming is the worst of all States, with 11.9 cases per 100,000 per day, a pandemic that continues to rage, and with no sign of any decrease at all.
Finally, here is a graph of the 10 worst States together, plus Missouri which is slightly below that level:
Just to emphasize the point, here are the 10 lowest States by the rate of those fully vaccinated:
MS 28%
AL 29%
WY 32%
LA 32%
AR 32%
TN 32%
ID 33%
UT 33%
GA 33%
OK 34%
All 10 of these States are in the South and West. Four of them are among the 10 worst States for new infections. By contrast, all of the 6 New England States are above 50% for those fully vaccinated, and of those only Maine is at a problematic level, although clearly declining.
“Those who cannot see must feel.” Those regions with populations who refuse to get vaccinated will continue to see the pandemic spread through the unvaccinated until they reach “herd immunity” the hard way. Those regions whose populations have embraced vaccinations are likely to achieve “herd immunity” and the de facto end of the pandemic within the next 45 days.
But, those are freedom to infect states.
Also, there are large Indian reservations in many Western states, and if there is one thing native Americans know enough to avoid when possiblle, it is a novel disease.
The infection rates even in the higher states are not at levels that are very appreciable to the population really as they lead their lives every day. Consider the near collapse of media obsession on the matter then confound that with asymptotic and mild cases and you have people not dwelling on it and not likely to know anyone currently with any kind of serious illness. The perceived difference between the best and worst states as far as their residents are concerned is not so much. There remain, I believe, a lot of people who will get the vaccine over the rest of 2021, even if they just get around to it in November. My guess is the more serious headaches start if boosters are really needed soon. J&J is going to get a real advantage if boosters need to be 2 dose regimens for the others. If boosters come into this, it is really going to get a lot of people doing more rigorous risk self-assessments. I think it would also dramatically impact the discussions of school vaccine mandates. Opinion is not clear at all today about this even among vaccinated parents.
Anti-vaxers have always been freeloaders; without the rest of us, they would have all been dead long time ago. Congressmen Billie Long of Southwest Missouri says it’s all Biden’s fault his district numbers are low; hasn’t made it easy enough. Didn’t say anything about the Governor’s role, or that they had to send the shots back to the fed, couldn’t give them away. Funny about that, they drive to town for any excuse, but any shots should come with a six-pak, in my chair, while I’m watching my tv preacher, please. Latest on the ground reports say it is Trump supporters refusing the shots.
I agree that Trump supporters are likely to be a significant part of the unvaccinated the rest of the year. Probably a lot are not going to distinguish between the prior orthodoxy on coronavirus origins and current orthodoxy on vaccines. For many, it’s likely to be a one size fits ‘they lied to us about COVID’ and that’s going to extend to vaccines. Many won’t accept a concept like ‘fractional credibility’….wrong on China (and deliberately) but right on vaccines. Fire Fauci if needed. Time to shake things up.
Ken Melvin
because I am here anyway:
I don’t think “freeloaders” is a very helpful way to persuade people to get vaccines. A lot of them are just scared..something that started long before Trump got hold of them as part of his base. Others just haven’t been convinced of the need for the vaccine or its safety. A problem here has been contradictory messages from the good guys as well as the bad guys. I heard from what sounded like a respectable source early in the pandemic that masks were really not necessary, and like most people believed the doctor. My opinion changed after further information and my own brain processes caught up, so I became, and remain a devout masker and social distances. As for the vaccines, I have been skeptical of them for a hundred years..something about resistance to herd thinking…and I know I am probably mostly wrong about that, but it’s amazing how much old ideas resist changing in the face of new “evidence” or claims of evidence. Fortunately for me, my social distancing is so absolute the question is moot. Still, I think a certain amount of good manners will go further with the unconvinced than just calling them names.
Coberly:
Are you masquerading in the Senate as Joe Manchin? Since 2019, we have watched hundreds of thousands of people in the US die or become overwhelming ill from a virus which lingers in your heart, other organs, or your brain. The bodies were literally stacked up in refrigerated trailers.
Why in the hell would you blame the issue on Fauci, etc. when all along the issues have been with trump, his sycophants’, and trump’s enablers. Why would you give them cover? Did you personally hear Fauci say what was claimed he said or are his comments being taken out of context which Repubs are famous for doing and are well-versed in doing having done so with our first black president?
There are no good manners which will change them.
As to being lied to? Who controlled the government and kept a lid on every word coming from the White House and 99% of Republican legislators? The orange one. Republicans still give credence to him.
spell check can’t cope with d i s t a n c e r…so it gives you distances. what makes that really irritating is that when i spell beleive it has no trouble accepting that.
Run
I did not blame anything on Fauci. The doctor I was talking about was not Fauci. And I wasn’t blaming him. I was just “reporting” that I had heard conflicting information which for a time I…even skeptical I…sort of believed until I had time to sort it out in my own mind, helped by subsequent evidence.
Please try to understand that I am , mostly, not trying to argue FOR any position, especially not the postion of Trump, Fox, or any of the loathsome creatures in the Senate. I do try to get people to think a little more clearly, and even to avoid counterproductive arguments… that is to sy arguments that hurt MY side, even when they think they are somehow helping my side.
Do I need to go back throug what I said to clear things up for you, or can you do that yourself, now that you know?
I’ll come back later and try to clear up what you misunderstood about what I said, or what I think you are now misunderstanding, for all the good it will do.
typo:
“that is to say” not “that is to sy” [but is to sigh.]
Run
Part 2
Good manners DOES help. I am sure you must have found that out in your own personal life. You certainly have given that advice to me on occasion when I needed it.
There is NOTHING in my comment that rationally supports your criticism of it. I was trying to make the point that calling people who are not getting vaccinated “freeloaders” is neither accurate nor helpful. I was not in any way, here or ever, agreeing with Trump supporters.
I don’t think I mentioned “being lied to,” so where did “as to…” come from?
There isn’t much hope when the left indulges in the same kind of “thinking” and hate-speech as the right.
‘calling people who are not getting vaccinated “freeloaders” is neither accurate nor helpful’
I would argue that it is accurate. Polio and measles were almost eradicated because almost everyone got the shot. Those who did not get the shot benefited. They benefited regardless of whether their reasons good or meaningless. Even though freeloaders is a loaded word it is accurate.
I expect we would agree that sometimes being accurate is not a good reason to choose to say something.
Arne
you are a more careful thinker than most, and I really don’t want to argue with you.
it is true that from the point of view of people paying for the vaccine, or submitting themselves to an unpleasant chore, those not getting the vaccine are benefitting from their (party of the first part) sacrifice and hence “freeloading.”
i think there is some psychological, if not moral, danger in thinking of others as freeloaders…except in clear cases where the intent (conscious or otherwise) of the designated freeloader is to take advantage of others’ sacrifice.
in this case that does not seem to be the intent. quite the opposite. the non-vaxers don’t believe the vaccine does any good or do believe that it is dangerous to them. they have no intent to derive advantage from your taking the vaccine.
calling them freeloaders in that case is unlikely to persuade them, and somewhat likely to drive them into the camp of the enemy. Trump-ists don’t give a damn about the merits of the vaccine. They do give a damn about taking advantage of the already existing fears in a large enough subset of the population to increase their own power.
This thread is probably dead, but I will note that if you google “freeloader economics”, you will find the somewhat less loaded term that actually warrants a Wikipedia entry is free-rider. The Wikipedia article has two sections to discuss “solutions” but does not consider the possibility that the value to the paying riders is enough to compensate for the non-paying riders.
Arne
interesting possible discussion when my battery is recharged
Arne:
Try to do paragraphs now, please.
line 0
line 1
line 2
line 3
But it seems to be thread dependent and it worked right already on this thread.