Real income and – especially – spending increase in April, but households are getting much more overextended by NewDealdemocrat In April nominal personal income rose 0.4%, and spending rose 0.9%. March’s spending was revised up from 1.1% to 1.4%. In more good news, the personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, rose only 0.2%, […]
Real money supply declines sharply; another leading indicator for recession next year Real M1 declined -0.8% in April, and real M2 declined by -0.7%, following March declines of -1.0% for each: These have been the sharpest monthly declines since 2005: Real money supply is a long leading indicator, as shown in the below graph of […]
Initial and continuing jobless claims continue moderating trend Initial jobless claims declined 8,000 to 210,000 last week, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. Meanwhile, the 4-week average rose by another 7,250 to 206,750, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set seven weeks ago. Continuing claims also rose from […]
RJS, Focus on Fracking Summary: Natural gas rigs at a 32 month high; DUCs at a record low; 4.5 month Drilled but Uncompleted Wells (DUC) backlog is lowest in 7 years; completions remain 17% below prepandemic average… This Week’s Rig Count The number of drilling rigs running in the US increased for the 74th time over the […]
by Joseph Joyce The Rising Dollar The foreign currency value of the dollar has been rising. The nominal broad dollar index of the Federal Reserve shows the dollar has increased by about 9% since its low point a year ago while other indexes register larger gains. What does this mean for the U.S. and other economies? The appreciation […]
New home sales get walloped New single family home sales got walloped in April, declining -16.6% for the month compared with March, and down -26.9% from one year ago. Measured from their most recent peak last December, they are off -29.6%, and measured from their pandemic peak of August 2020, they are down a whopping […]
Inflation reversals as unique markers of Boom and Bust cycles vs. Fed interventions As I’ve already mentioned a couple of times, I am seeing posts from the usual DOOOMERS warning that a recession is imminent, if we’re not already in one. Typically – again, as per usual – they cite data that they never bothered […]
Boston Public Radio May 19th episode held a discussion of the consequences for the nation when abortion is outlawed. The guest was Jonathan Gruber, the Ford Professor of Economics at MIT. He was involved with the ACA and the Mass health insurance system. Getting right to it: Based on studies: Women who wanted an abortion […]
RJS, MarketWatch 666 Summary: Retail Sales Rose 0.9% in April after March Sales Revised 0.9% Higher Seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.9% in April, after retail sales March were revised 0.9% higher, while sales for February were revised a bit lower . . . the Advance Retail Sales Report for April (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated […]
“Will baby boomers unretire?” (beckershospitalreview.com), Molly Gamble, Becker’s Hospital Review Me: I am seeing this phenomenon happening quite a bit myself with multiple inquiries on job status. Millions of older Americans have returned to work in recent months, with nearly 64 percent of adults between ages 55 and 64 working in April. Essentially this is […]