RJS, MarketWatch 666 Summary: Construction Spending Rose 0.1% in March after Prior Months Were Revised Higher The Census Bureau’s report on construction spending for March (pdf) estimated that the month’s seasonally adjusted construction spending would work out to $1,730.5 billion annually if extrapolated over an entire year, which was 0.1 percent (±0.7%)* above the revised annualized February […]
March JOLTS report: the game of musical chairs in the jobs market intensifies to all-time highs In March, as this morning’s Census Bureau JOLTS report shows, the game of musical job chairs in the jobs market has actually intensified to all-time levels. Specifically, both job openings and quits made all-time highs, and total separations during […]
Manufacturing and construction start out the month with positive prints As per usual, the new month starts with updates on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. This remained positive, but there has been a definite slowing in the […]
RJS, MarketWatch 666 Summary: New Home Sales Reported 8.6% Lower on Record Prices in March, after Prior Months Sales Revised Much Higher The Census report on New Residential Sales for March (pdf) estimated that new single family homes were selling at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 763,000 homes during the month, which was 8.6 percent (±12.9 […]
Major Economic Confusion Anybody confused by recent economic reports is not alone. The BEA has just reported a totally unexpected decline in real GDP for the first quarter of a 1.4% annual rate. At the same time layoffs have reached a half century low and employment continues to rise. How can we have an apparently […]
Lackluster spending, a decline in real income and savings in March; when the house price spiral turns, consumers are in real trouble In March nominal personal income rose 0.5%, and spending rose 1.1%. But since the personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, rose 0.9%, real income declined -0.4%, and real personal spending rose […]
Q1 GDP negative; but more importantly, two of three long leading indicators have deteriorated by New Deal democrat First things first: yes, it was a negative GDP print. No, it doesn’t necessarily mean recession. I’ve been expecting weakness to show up by now ever since last summer; so here it is. But the big culprits were […]
What happens when the USPS decides to close a Post Office? The closure does not happen over night. A Post Office may close immediately due to an emergency, a suspended lease, less business over time, etc. In any case the USPS follows up. This post by Steve Hutkins is a review of the process and […]
Jobless claims: yet another 50+ year low in continuing claims [Programming note: I’ll comment on the Q1 GDP report later]. Initial jobless claims declined -5,000 to 180,000, but above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average rose 2,250 to 179,250, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set […]
If anyone ever knew, it might have been Wilbur. But Wilbur got caught chasing Fanne in the park late one night. Then, too, he died a long time ago. So, “What would Wilbur do?,” is not an option. Even if it were, Wilbur might not have even ever asked ‘how should it be’; only knew […]