Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Tipping Waiters

Open Thread for Talk. You can talk about tipping waiters or you may choose a different topic. Initial topic is “tipping waiters.” When we go to dinner, we expect good service and usually get it. A good waiter is typically checking on the restaurant guests and being attentive to their needs. The exchange should be […]

YoY jobless claims still rangebound, but continuing claims at 3.5 year high

– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our weekly look at jobless claims. Particularly since it is one of two “quick and dirty” elements that will indicate whether the “recession watch” I inaugurated yesterday will need to be upgraded to a “warning.” Initial claims rose 8,000 last week to 247,000, while the four week moving average […]

More Sellers Than Buyers of Housing

Too many houses on the market. Opportunity for Buyers. The graph below has the details . . . As taken from: “The Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers,” Redfin, Lily Katz and Asad Khan There are an estimated 1.9 million home sellers in the U.S. housing market and an estimated 1.5 million homebuyers. In […]

“Large Upward Redistribution of Income”

“For the very rich who will see enormous tax cuts from this bill, it all might end up being a good deal,” wrote Josh Bivens of the Economic Policy Institute. “For everybody else, it will not.” Economist Details How GOP Medicaid Cuts Would Be Disastrous for Everyone—Except the Super-Rich Common Dreams and Jake Johnson The […]

The awkward truth

If we just don’t see it, it didn’t happen, amirite? “Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a government forecast because it predicts an increase in the nation’s trade deficit in farm goods later this year, according to two people familiar with the matter. “The numbers run counter to President Donald Trump’s messaging that his economic […]

Economically weighted ISM services + manufacturing warrant Recession Watch

 – by New Deal democrat Last month I concluded my report on the economically weighted ISM manufacturing and services indexes by writing “new orders for the entire economy are tight on the cusp of tipping into contraction.” This month, they did, warranting a “Recession Watch.” To recap, because manufacturing is much less important to the economy […]

Trump vs Musk cage match?

Josh Marshall won’t come out and say it, but I will. Musk’s attack on Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill” is political kayfabe. Josh points out that they could each draw blood but haven’t. “Both of these guys have very big weapons each can use against the other. Musk can invest money against the GOP budget bill […]

Giant budget reconciliation bill has focused attention on the drastic cuts

June 2, 2025 by Heather Cox Richardson Letters from an American The Republicans’ giant budget reconciliation bill has focused attention on the drastic cuts the Trump administration is making to the American government. On Friday, when a constituent at a town hall shouted that the Republicans’ proposed cuts to Medicaid, the federal healthcare program for […]

April job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs: possibly the last month before the effects of Tariff-palooza! are felt

 – by New Deal democrat The JOLTS survey, which decomposes the employment market into job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, was reported this morning for April. In 2024 the data were most consistent with a “soft landing,” but the actions of the new Administration, especially on trade, have exacerbated the fear that this might transform into […]

SWI swissinfo.ch 2024 Annual Report

Swiss review of Global, European and U.S. occurrences in the world today and its impact upon their country and its people and well as others. It is interesting if you have time to read such. I would read their news when I could as well as the German reports while in Europe. SWI swissinfo.ch 2024 […]