Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Promise Kept on Tipped Income?

With the signing of the Budget Bill, persons working at “an occupation which customarily and regularly receive tips” can deduct up to $25,000 of tip income provided their total income does not exceed $150,000. This deduction will be phased out beginning in 2028 unless extended by Congress. Trump made three promises to reduce taxes to […]

Medicaid Cuts and Immigrants

Part of Republican fables on how healthcare programs are being taken advantage of by fraudulent enrollments. They will not be happy until something serious occurs and many are afflicted. Center for Children and Families takes the lead on debunking the governments stories. “Factchecking The White House ‘Mythbuster’ on Medicaid Cuts and Immigrants,” Center For Children […]

New Deal democrat’s Weekly Indicators June 30 -July 4

 – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There were almost no changes to any of the high frequency indicators in any timeframe last week. Despite that, below the surface, there has been a very gradual weakening of a number of important indicators in both the monthly and weekly data.  […]

It’s starting already

“LINCOLN, Neb. (KLKN) — A clinic in southwest Nebraska announced Wednesday that it is closing due to financial challenges, including anticipated Medicaid cuts. “McCook-based Community Hospital said it is shutting down its clinic in Curtis, a town of about 900 people. “The Curtis Medical Center has been in operation for more than 30 years.” But […]

Jobless claims remain neutral

 – by New Deal democrat In addition to the jobs report, because this is Thursday we also got the latest jobless claims numbers. To wit, initial claims declined -4,000 to 233,000, and the four week moving average declined -3,750 to 241,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims were unchanged at 1.964 million: The more […]

June jobs report weakness: not enough for “recession watch,” but not too far away either

 – by New Deal democrat Even before the new Administration took office in Washington, my focus had been on whether the economy would have a “soft” or “hard” landing, i.e., recession. That has only intensified by the utter chaos of this Administration, particularly about tariffs. So my focus now is looking for “hard” vs.”soft” data indicating […]

Book Review “Basic Economics”

David Zetland doing a review of Thomas Sowell’s book, “Basic Economics.” I had written Mr. Sowell once, maybe a decade ago. I was the recipient of his book. I was a third of the way through it when I was called away for a business trip which lasted a month. I found the book and […]

JOLTS survey for May still consistent with “soft landing” scenario

– by New Deal democrat As promised, let me parse the JOLTS survey for May, which was reported yesterday.  As a quick refresher, this survey decomposes the employment market into openings, hires, quits, and layoffs. In 2024 the data were most consistent with a “soft landing,” but the actions of the new Administration, especially on trade, […]