Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Weekly Indicators for January 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for January 25 – 29 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. After many weeks of stability, there is some turmoil – in opposing directions – among the short leading indicators in particular. It is an indication of the bifurcated nature of the economy at […]

Is China Now Number One?

Is China Now Number One?  Actually I think focusing on such questions can be a not very useful exercise, but here I am asking it anyway.  As it is, indeed the Peoples’ Republic of China (PRC) is indeed Number One on a number of important grounds, although probably the bottom line is that the world […]

Not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession

Real personal spending declines in December, while income rises; not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession This morning’s report on personal income and spending for December reversed the pattern we have seen all during the second half of 2020. After rebounding strongly for 6 months, real personal spending (blue in the graph below) declined […]

Debt and Taxes III

The reliably brilliant Catharine Rampell argues against giving $1400 to quite so many people. She notes The Democratic-controlled House passed legislation in December to expand stimulus payments to $2,000. This was marketed as aid to the poor and middle class, but the bill would have given some money to 94 percent of households — including those making over […]

Upward trend confirmed in new jobless claims

Upward trend confirmed in new jobless claims On a unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 101,498 to 873,966. Seasonally adjusted claims also declined by 67,000 to 847,000. The 4 week moving average, however, rose by 16,250 to 868,000. Since the 4 week average has risen above 850,000, and weekly claims were above 900,000 for […]

Biden Promises to Help Fix the Student Loan Crisis

There are those who always raise the issue of “I paid for mine, you pay for yours. I know of no other debt created by borrowing money where the penalty is a life time of servitude and the means of retirement in Social Security is also attached too. Principal remains untouched and whatever money paid […]

Desirable incentive effects of income taxation V

Fifth and last. Not relevant to the USA. Back in the day when US unions weren’t totally feeble, MacDonald and Solow wrote a brilliant paper on collective bargaining and tax based incomes policy. Imagine a world in which firms must negotiation with unions (for example imagine Europe). The unions have two aims — they want […]

A detailed, updated look at the housing market

A detailed, updated look at the housing market Existing home sales for December were reported this morning at 6.76 million annualized, just below the October 10 Year+ high of 6.86 million. Although existing home sales are about 90% of the entire housing market, they are less important economically than new housing construction, which has multiplier […]