November inflation tame again, with the economy weak, but real wage gains strong Consumer prices rose 0.2% in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, but declined -0.1% unadjusted: As shown in the above graph, a November decline in prices is typical. This year’s decline was less than either of the past two years.On a YoY […]
JOLTS report for October: similar to previous 2 recoveries, but a decline in actual hiring may be a warning This morning’s JOLTS report for October showed a jobs market recovery that, for one month at least, paused. Openings and quits were up (good), but layoffs and discharges were also up (bad) while hires were down […]
Jobless claims rise: a break in the trend? This week’s new and continuing jobless claims all rose off of last week’s pandemic lows, but while I suspect the downward trend has broken, I don’t think we can say so decisively yet. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 228,982 to 947,504. Seasonally adjusted […]
Noah Smith wrote a very interesting post on how macroeconomists are behaving very differently in 2020 than in 2008-9 : The new macro: “Give people money” . He notes two differences : first there is little discussing of theory or of the models used in most peer reviewed articles, second there is (as far as […]
Four measures of labor market losses in the pandemic Below is a graph of 4 ways of measuring the downturn in the labor market due to the pandemic: 1. Payrolls (blue) – this is the headline jobs number from the establishment survey2. Civilian employment (green) – this is the equivalent number from the household survey.3. […]
Constructing An Alternative Reality This has been gradually developing for about the last quarter of a century or so. While there was some of this going on before, it took off after the Newt Gingrich-led GOP took over Congress in the 94 election and Rush Limbaugh began his radio show. Not long after Fox News […]
I am often critical of libertarian economist Donald Boudreaux. This morning, I sent him an email criticizing a post of his in which he cited a study claiming that pcr tests for covid have a false positive rate of 80% or more. I pointed out that this is obvious nonsense, since overall test positivity rates, […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 30 – December 4 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There is more evidence of weakening of the coincident data, probably as the result of the completely out of control pandemic. Some of that is probably due to new restrictions, some to […]
November jobs report: the “least positive” report since April HEADLINES: Leading employment indicators of a slowdown or recession I am still highlighting these because of their leading nature for the economy overall. These were generally positive:
Fact: Contrary to what President Trump claims, the Postal Service can’t solve its financial problems by raising “the price of a package by approximately four times.” Steve Hutkins at Save The Post Office discusses the financial issues facing the United States Postal Service and why the Postal Regulatory Commission new plans to increase prices may […]