Noah Smith states that there is no “cycle” to the business cycle. (link) My response on twitter was, “…there can be definable limits without a cycle.” Can we define the limit of a business cycle? I have a model that describes what a limit to the business cycle might look like in terms of a […]
Stephen Williamson wrote a critique of this post which critique was praised by David Andolfato and Noah Smith. Williamson critiques the Keynesianism defined as So, as I learned from Dick Lipsey in 1975, and my cat learned last fall, Keynesian Cross is (1) C = A + cY, (2) Y = C + I + […]
Dan here…Paul Krugman New York Times Dec. 24 notes Robert’s thinking on current story lines by some economists in macromedia. Other posts by Robert on the subject can be found here, here, here, and here. Krugman writes: Robert Waldmann is shocked, shocked, to find conservative economists not doing their homework: Even now, I am shocked that economists didn’t bother to […]
http://bonddad.blogspot.com/2014/12/the-oil-choke-collar-2015-may-be-acid.html The Oil Choke Collar: 2015 may be the acid test – by New Deal democrat It’s nice to be proven right. Even more, it’s nice to be proven right, for the right reason. Back in 2011, I described what I called the “Oil choke collar,” writing: For the second time in two years, Oil’s […]
Holiday present for you via Congress and the Cromnibus. Tucked into the massive spending bill Congress passed this weekend was legislation that reversed 40 years of federal law protecting retirees’ pensions. The change will allow benefit cuts for up to 10 million workers, many of them part of a shrinking middle-class workforce in businesses such […]
If anyone means to deliberate successfully about anything, there is one thing he must do at the outset: he must know what it is he is deliberating about. Otherwise he is bound to go utterly astray. Now, most people fail to realize that they don’t know what this or that really is. Consequently when they […]
(Dan here update…other posts by Robert Waldmann on the issues can be found here, here, here, and here.) G and GDP during the current recovery update Stephen Williamson asks “Where’s the multiplier” (I have read only the title not the post). Since I regressed rates of growth on rates of growth, my coefficient of grGDP on grG = 0.339 […]
Noah Smith has an excellent post which is very critical of something John Cochrane wrote. I added a couple more criticisms in comments Your post is very good as usual. I’d add a couple of things. Cochrane wrote “With the 2013 sequester, Keynesians warned that reduced spending and the end of 99-week unemployment benefits would […]
This is getting out of hand. A recent post received too many high quality comments. I discuss the discussion some here. The general view expressed in the discussion is that it sure looks as if non residential fixed capital investment as a percent of GDP expressed (nrfinvgdp) and nominal interest rates are positively correlated, because […]
In the post below, I discuss a very strong correlation in the data which surprised me — a high ratio non residential fixed capital investment to GDP is correlated with high nominal interest rates on corporate bonds. I think the discussion in comments was very interesting and I have promised to pull back 2 comments […]