Jobless claims: the beginning of a pandemic reversal? This week’s new jobless claims rose from last week’s pandemic lows, while continued jobless claims again declined to new pandemic lows. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims rose by 18,264 to 743,460. Seasonally adjusted claims rose by 31,000 to 742,000. The 4 week moving average, […]
– by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 16 – 20 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Nothing definitive yet – after all weekly data is going to be noisy – but there is some indication that the recovery in coincident conditions in the economy have ceased to make […]
Housing permits and starts: more evidence for a powerful economic liftoff in 2021 This morning (Nov. 19) yet another leading indicator showed that the economy is revving to move ahead strongly, and is only being held back by the pandemic (and the horrible “response” by Trump). Total (blue in the graph below) and single family […]
Economy still expanding, but with retail consumption outpacing production This morning saw two important releases of October data: industrial production and retail sales. Both showed continued strength. Industrial production is the King of Coincident Indicators, and more than any other metric typically shows whether the overall economy is expanding or contracting. In October it increased […]
Will President Biden Scrap GILTI? Congratulations to Brad Setser for being selected to be the Agency Review Team for the Office of the United States Trade Representative. I’m curious, however, as to his views on certain aspects of President Elect’s proposals with respect to corporate taxation. There were lots to criticize as to the 2017 Tax Cuts […]
First a story, then an introduction to Student Loan Justice Org. and Their Town Hall Meeting November 20th, and finally some cold hard facts from founder Alan Collinge about what is happening to millions of people who have student loans. Your Angry Bear blogger and activist went to a garden party in Michigan in support of […]
Lack of inflation in September consistent with weak demand; real wages increase, but will the pandemic derail the gains? Consumer prices were unchanged in October, both on a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted basis: But while the lack of inflation is good news in isolation, the last two months can also be viewed […]
New and continued jobless claims: best week of the pandemic; can it survive a new emergency? This week’s new and continued jobless claims, both seasonally adjusted and unadjusted, declined to new pandemic lows – but at levels roughly equivalent to their worst readings during the Great Recession. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. With Joe Biden assuming the Presidency on January 20, and an announcement of a successful vaccine by Pfizer that should be available by next spring or summer, the short and long leading indicators […]
September JOLTS report shows jobs recovery has been real – but will it continue? Yesterday’s (Nov. 10) JOLTS report for September showed a jobs market that continues to be, ever so slowly, on the mend. Openings and quits were up (good), and layoffs and discharges were down (also good). The only negative was that […]