Jobless claims negative trend reversal likely; expect a poor December jobs number This week new jobless claims rose further from their recent pandemic lows, while continuing claims, seasonally adjusted, made a new pandemic low. Nevertheless, I strongly suspect the downward trend has broken. On an unadjusted basis, new jobless claims declined by 21,335 to 935,138. […]
I had written on the high cost of pharmaceuticals late 2019, “Another Look at Drug Pricing, Costs, and Why” citing from the World Health Organization, the ICER, JAMA Network, Health Affairs, and my own posts (links below and in text). You will find the some of the same articles cited in new commentary of increased […]
Industrial production continues to progress, at a slower rate, in November I call industrial production the “King of Coincident Indicators” because it is the metric that is usually the decisive one for the NBER in determining when recessions and expansions begin and end. November’s report continues the trend of a strong rebound in production, as […]
by Joseph Joyce Portfolio Capital Flows to Emerging Markets amid the Pandemic Among the most notable economic responses to the COVID-19 pandemic has been the turnaround in capital flows to emerging markets. A sudden reversal in portfolio flows of over $100 billion to these countries in March has been offset by a surge of capital […]
Why Did AMLO Wait So Long To Recognize Biden Victory? I do not know, but it is on the surface at least surprising. AMLO is the nickname of Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the President of Mexico since Dec. 1, 2018. Only yesterday, along with Mitch McConnell, President Putin of Russia and President Bolsonaro of Brazil, […]
Industrial production continues to progress, at a slower rate, in November I call industrial production the “King of Coincident Indicators” because it is the metric that is usually the decisive one for the NBER in determining when recessions and expansions begin and end. November’s report continues the trend of a strong rebound in production, as […]
by New Deal democrat The US economy is primed for takeoff in 2021 The first vaccine against COVID-19 began to be distributed today. At last there is light at the end of the tunnel. The pandemic has been dictating the state of the economy ever since it hit. But for the last several months and […]
The Fiscal Stimulus Gridlock The best can be said about a possible fiscal stimulus in the face of a renewed Covid-19 surge that is dragging the economy down as many areas shut down in various degrees is that at least a few hours ago the US Senate approved a one week continuing budget resolution to […]
Then and Now — Once the birthright of lords and kings, the association of wealth with power, is, of late, more often than not, the prerogative of the very wealthy; theirs as a right derived under the aegis of capitalism, and, one defended, it seems — under the aegis of the Constitution. For a long […]
by New Deal Democrat Weekly Indicators for December 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Here’s the link: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4394374-weekly-high-frequency-indicators-weakness-spreads-still-no-fundamental-change-in-outlook With the big increase in jobless claims, as well as a deteriorating situation for restaurant dining, weakness has spread further among the indicators – but the forecast, both […]