Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Free Lunches, Portfolio Allocation, and Equity Premia: Part 1

TANSTAAFL. There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch. Someone pays, somehow. The standard textbook example is pilots who refill their plane at a gas station that offers them a “free” steak dinner while charging five cents a gallon more than another station at the same airport. The pilot and co-pilot get $50 dinners […]

Open Thread August 19, 2023 “Appeals court strikes down Utah oil railroad approval”

“The statement received pushback from environmentalists concerned that constructing new infrastructure to transport more fossil fuels will allow more oil to be extracted and burned, contributing to climate change. “Appeals court strikes down Utah oil railroad approval, siding with environmentalists,” msn.com. Additionally, communities in neighboring Colorado including Eagle County and the city of Glenwood Springs […]

The last domino still refuses to fall: Travelin’ Man edition

In housing construction, the last domino still refuses to fall: Travelin’ Man edition  – by New Deal democrat [First, a blogging note: I will be traveling for the next week and a half. I’ll keep posting the data, but the posts are likely to be brief, and may be a day late. On days when there […]

Chickens, Eggs, and Krugman

Paul Krugman has the amazing ability to get me (briefly) interested in economic theory. He writes that the (non provisional) IRA has had a larger than expected impact on investment writing: Paul Krugman has the amazing ability to get me (briefly) interested in economic theory. He writes that the (non provisional) IRA has had a […]

Non-fungible tokens

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) first came to my attention just a couple years ago. Apparently, anything could be an NFT. Per Investopedia: “Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are assets that have been tokenized via a blockchain. They are assigned unique identification codes and metadata that distinguish them from other tokens. “NFTs can be traded and exchanged for money, […]

July retail sales: gas and vehicle sales continue to dominate the trend

July retail sales: gas and vehicle sales continue to dominate the trend  – by New Deal democrat As always, real retail sales tell us a great deal about what is happening in the consumer economy. July continued the recent trend since gas prices started declining over a year ago. Nominally retail sales increased 0.7%. Since […]

The Big Story: a 100+ year near-record decline in commodity prices is enabling continued record wage growth and employment

This is the Big Story: a 100+ year near-record decline in commodity prices is enabling continued record wage growth and employment  – by New Deal democrat No important economic data today, so let me elaborate on the matter of “immaculate disinflation,” i.e., the decline in inflation without a decline in growth. I’m going to argue […]

July producer prices: economic tailwind weakens, but still in place

Missed this analysis on Friday. July producer prices: economic tailwind weakens, but still in place  – by New Deal democrat Normally I don’t pay too much attention to the producer price index, but because the steep decline in producer prices has been such a boon to businesses, and a big tailwind for the economy as […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for August 7 – 11

Weekly Indicators for August 7 – 11 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. For the moment we are in something of a holding pattern, in particular with the coincident indicators. Buoyed by the big downturn in commodity prices, and somnolence of consumer prices ex-fictitious shelter, […]