The “bearish steepening” and the death of refinancing – by New Deal democrat If you’ve paid much attention to the financial press in recent days, you have probably read stories that the yield curve – the line that traces the difference in rates in different length bond maturities – has moved towards un-inverting. That is, the […]
Roosevelt Institute’s Economist Mike Konczal calls this a remarkable recovery. The increase in the number of people working has helped tamp down inflation and has shown the importance of aiming for full employment. Myself? I do not think this was planned by any authority, including the Fed. One belief I do have is there being […]
Weekly Indicators for October 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The recent improvement in the short leading indicators has made its way through to the coincident indicators. But, given the importance of gas prices, whether the turmoil in the Middle East spreads […]
This post will be long and confused. It is on a topic on which I am unusually especially ignorant as I decided that the case was hopeless 20 years ago and stopped following it. The current war makes me think that, at least things could be less horrible than they are, and I can’t help […]
I thought this article was a solid rehash of what took place in the early seventies when we were driving the inefficient monsters Detroit was manufacturing. It was only a short time earlier, smaller and more efficient foreign cars arrived in the US from places such as Japan. I was fortunate to snag a Datsun […]
Real average wages decline, while real aggregate payroll gains remain below peak – by New Deal democrat With the report on September inflation yesterday, we can update two measures of how well average American workers are doing: real average wages and real aggregate payrolls. Nominally wages increased 0.2% for the month. With consumer prices up […]
Except for fictitious shelter and vehicle repairs, September inflation was moderate – by New Deal democrat With the main exception of fictitious shelter, consumer inflation in September remained relatively subdued, but as anticipated has stopped decelerating. First I’ll look at the headlines, then the problem children. Total inflation (blue in the graph below) rose 0.4% […]
When we moved to New England last year, I looked forward to eating more seafood, locally sourced. The first clue I had that my expectations were not grounded in reality was when I discovered that the cod in grocery stores was Alaskan/Pacific cod. Turns out, a lot of the seafood on your plate was likely […]
One has to ask how we have reached this point in the Middle East. There are many actions taken which have maligned Palestinians and Arabs. If we allow the Gaza to be abandoned by Palestinians due to terrorists, who follows? This sounds too much like the growth of Israel at the expense of the Palestinians. […]
September producer prices confirm economic tailwind has ended – by New Deal democrat My strong suspicion has been that the tailwind of declining commodity prices, typified by the big decline in gas prices in late 2022 is what allowed the US economy to grow so well so far this year, blunting the effects of major […]