Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Why the index of leading indicators failed: examining the once in a lifetime post-pandemic tailwind

Why the index of leading indicators failed: examining the once in a lifetime post-pandemic tailwind  – by New Deal democrat Carl Quintanilla observed the one year anniversary of the following two days ago: I’ve written previously about what confounded that forecast. But let me highlight those issues again. 1. A 40% drop in gas prices, and […]

The collapse of the existing home market continues in September

The collapse of the existing home market continues in September  – by New Deal democrat September was yet another month in the ongoing collapse of existing home sales. To wit, sales declined another -8,000 on an annualized basis to 3.960 million. This is the lowest number since August 2010. And aside from that one singular […]

What Can be Done With This House of Representatives ?

Obviously the only thing any reasonable person would do is point and laugh at the Republicans. I am not that reasonable person, so I will try to think of a solution. Obviously one very boring possibility is that the Republicans will finally get their act together and elect a speaker. This is the most likely […]

Recency bias and polycrisis

I first became a history autodidact in my 20s, trying to understand the difference between my worldview and those of my parents and in-laws. >100 histories and biographies later, I have a great appreciation of just how awful the 20th century was. In my lifetime, I remember political assassinations, race riots, the Vietnam war, recessions, […]

A Chance to Modernize Prison Healthcare

A Chance to Modernize Health Care behind Bars, Section 1115 Medicaid Inmate Exclusion Waivers | NEJM, Brendan Saloner, Ph.D. California and Washington are the first states to receive waivers from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) regarding the Medicaid Inmate Exclusion Policy. The policy generally prohibits Medicaid from paying for health care for […]

The Speaker of the House Battle

It amazes me how far some people, errrrr politicians will extend themselves for opportunity, power, influence in Congress. Maybe I should not be calling them people? Maybe that is not amazing? Most of start off with their bad manners and aggressions, then do not have to live with and by their own decisions, and expect […]

Whew

On this day, 18 October 2023, a group representing, at best, 10 percent of House Republicans, 5 percent of the total House, and 5 percent of the total populace came too close to getting Jim Jordan selected Speaker of the House. We came this close to a coup. Albeit partial, a coup. If they had […]

Is peace realistic?

It is easy to think that those of us who favor a two-state solution are utopian dreamers.  The mantle of realism seems to rest naturally on those who insist on standing tough against a Palestinian state.  But this simple dichotomy has never been accurate, and the realist case for a renewed effort to achieve a […]

Popularism = Populism = Soak the Rich *and* Spread it Out Thin

For some reason in this time of crisis both foreign and domestic, I feel the need to remind Angrybear readers of a very simple stylized fact: If the income tax is constitutional and the top rate is less than 69% then non-incumbent Democratic candidates for President have won if and only if they promise to […]