November real retail sales show consumption still weakly positive Retail sales are one of my favorite indicators, because in real terms they can tell us so much about the present, near term forecast, and longer term forecast for the economy. This morning retail sales for November were reported up +0.2%, while October was also revised […]
Stealing The 2016 Election? (Dan here…Thursday) I have been watching the later stages of the still-ongoing House Judiciary Comm hearing on impeaching Trump. I have seen Republicans repeatedly ranting on about how this is an effort to undo the “popular election” of Trump, the will of the “63 million” who voted for Trump. Really, how […]
I first met Volcker when I was a junior international economist in Washington in the late 1960s. He was the Treasury Under Secretary for International Economics. I was going to a luncheon at the National Press Club for the Indian Finance Minister. As I got on the elevator, Paul Volcker and John Kenneth Galbraith — […]
Liz Cheney Loves Traitors Dick Cheney lied a lot so I guess his daughter feels compelled to do the same: So I would just ask people to remember that they have failed despite the fact that they had a process that basically put everything tilted in their direction. The Democrats were able to act as judge and […]
Live-blogging the Fifteenth Amendment: December 7, 1868 In the Senate: “Mr. Craving asked, and by unanimous consent obtained, leave to introduce a joint resolution proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States: . . . “No State shall deny the right of suffrage or abridge the same to any male citizens of the […]
The End Of The Harris Candidacy I should probably not waste time on this, but I was a fan of Kamala Harris. Her ending her candidacy while still in fifth place in the polls and if in a long slide, has me disappointed. As it is, given her declining polls, lack of money, and reportedly […]
Forecasting the 2020 election: the economic baseline (or, don’t count on a recession) Four years ago, I decided to use my set of “long leading indicators” to forecast the 2016 election. The indicators were very weakly positive, and pointed to a narrow popular vote win for the incumbent party one year out. This prompted Nate […]
“The New Hospital Price Disclosure Rule Is Important, But Only A First Step,” Health Affairs, James C. Capretta, August 26, 2019 The new proposed regulation on hospital price transparency is an important step toward consumer-friendly price information. The regulation introduces into federal price transparency, requirements such as the concepts: of service standardization, consumer-friendly organization and […]
I learned a long time ago at much personal expense, that there is a personality type which function within reality, but only in the present moment of reality. That is, what ever I say now has no bearing or relationship to what I just said or what I am about to say. I will deny […]
Being that I have lots to say and have not had time to formulate it into posts I figured I would just start here. 2006. Do watch it. He tried to warn us. But hey…Now the news media is being threatened too and they are concerned. Figure 1 I keep coming to these words: But don’t […]