Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Disaggregating the Big Picture: the Fed still wants to make your recession forecast wrong

 – by New Deal democrat Today, New Deal democrat offers a Big Picture hypothesis. This is Housing Week, but there is no significant data today, and I’m going to wait for new home sales to be reported on Wednesday before commenting on how existing home sales fit in. In the meantime, let me unpack a […]

As The Trump Legal World Turns. Not to be confused with a Familiar TV Soap Opera . . .

Trumps Court Cases an Update by Joyce Vance Civil Discourse Just so you know, I am not kidding. This reads as a soap opera. Poor Trump so many issue . . . Full time subscriber to Civil Discourse. Hope ou enjoy his reading of he issues, ~~~~~~~ This week, two very important Legal World developments […]

UH-OH: The slowest mail in the country is in key swing states, NBC investigation finds . . .

by Steve Hutkins Save the Post Office In 2020, when the United States Postal Service began an ambitious plan to modernize and consolidate services in the middle of the pandemic. Its slow service wound up disenfranchising tens of thousands of voters whose ballots never made it to their elections offices in time. Four years later – by […]

Housing Shortage, Housing Bubble, Soft Landing, FED Brilliance or Luck?

I think the title makes it clear that this will be a rambling confused post. I am typing on with the thought that something is better than nothing and no one has to read this. The first topic – house prices, is in fact one that interests me a lot. I have a regression which […]

The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act 

by Bill Gale EconoFact The 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act (TCJA) was the most sweeping realignment of the U.S. tax code in over three decades. It lowered tax rates, simplified taxes, raised the government debt, and was regressive, benefitting people who are well off more than the middle-class and the poor. Many provisions of the TCJA expire […]

US for-profit healthcare system still ranks dead last

It should come as no surprise to regular AB readers that the US for-profit healthcare system is a disaster for everyone except the executives and stock-holders. Here’s yet another confirmation: “A report out Thursday shows that the United States’ for-profit healthcare system still ranks dead last among peer nations on key metrics, including access to […]

Quick and Dirty Economic Indicator Says: Not Even Close to Recession

 – by New Deal democrat There are some economic and financial indicators that aren’t classic leading or lagging indicators. Rather, they are “over-sensitive” in one direction or another. Two good examples are heavy truck sales and the unemployment rate: they are over-sensitive to the downside: they lead going in to recessions, but lag coming out. […]

Overdoses, the Economy, and Politics

September 19, 2024 Letters from an American “Democracy depends on at least two healthy political parties that can compete for voters on a level playing field. Although the men who wrote the Constitution hated the idea of political parties, they quickly figured out the party’s tie voters to the mechanics of Congress and the presidency.” […]

SARS-CoV-2 and the Wuhan wet market

Endless online vitriol has been spilt promoting the idea that the COVID-19 pandemic was somehow either (a) an engineered pathogen or (b) a virus that escaped from a research facility. While those allegations served the interests of the Trump Administration, the actual, you know, scientific data supporting them was non-existant. Now, years later, the sorts […]