“Updating the long leading indicators: corporate profits, and housing.” – by New Deal democrat This week I’m spending some time updating the non-financial long leading indicators. As I wrote on Monday, I haven’t updated these in a while in large part because the chaos coming out of Washington has blindsided much of the economic data. There’s […]
New polling from Strength in Numbers shows the public supports impeachment, 55% in favor to 37% opposed. This supports the prediction from the betting market Kalshi that currently gives Trump a 68% chance of impeachment before the end of his term. (Note that removal by the Senate is much less likely than impeachment by the […]
Just some snippets taken from an NYT article opened by the subscriber to other readers. What the NYT article is looking at is the impact to Asia of the Middle East oil stoppage. The shortage being the on-and-off closing of the Straits of Hormuz. Caused by either by Iran or the United States of both […]
– J.P. McJefferson Thoughts In today’s hyper-partisan Washington, calls for impeachment have become almost routine—more a reflection of political frustration than a viable governing strategy. Pundits debate the merits, party leaders posture, and voters are left to wonder whether any of it can actually lead to action. Under current conditions in the House of Representatives, […]
Godwin’s law states: “As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches one.” In my experience, a similar law applies to the words “socialist,” “communist” and “Marxist.” All three words are used interchangeably and as epithets, not descriptions of governments or economic systems. Let’s start with Marxist: “The […]
– by New Deal democrat Consumer spending is about 70% of the economy, and retail sales is our first wide measure of that spending. This morning’s update for March (still after all these months delayed about a week compared with the schedule before last autumn’s government shutdown) was unsurprisingly dominated by what happened at gas stations. […]
– by New Deal democrat So much of the changes to the economy has been dictated by the whims of the White House that it has not made much sense to throughly update the suite of long leading indicators in many months. After all, why chart their incipient effects when they are consistently being overtaken by […]
The old saying of: “If you have done nothing wrong, you have nothing to worry about.” Except 40-year old local white guy was stopped and they were ready to take me in. There is some truth to this. I can understand why people are worried when stopped by authorities. I have been stopped, questioned, and […]
Unemployment has increased for U.S.-born workers in the face of mass deportations: Trump’s draconian immigration enforcement is harming all workers. Economic Policy Institute, April 3, 2026 During the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump and J.D. Vance promised that mass deportations and a crack-down on immigration would open up jobs for unemployed U.S. citizens. The theory was […]
As Americans Struggle With Soaring Prices, Trump Says $4 Gas Is ‘Not Very High,’ Common Dreams President Donald Trump on Thursday brushed off Americans’ concerns about paying $4 per gallon of gas, telling a group of reporters that this price is “not very high.” While speaking with journalists on the White House lawn, Trump was asked by a reported […]