Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Jobless claims remain well-behaved, while Philly region manufacturing … isn’t

 – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims continued to be well-behaved last week. Per this morning’s report, they declined -9.000 to 215,000, while the four week moving average declined -2,500 to 220,750. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims increased 41,000 to 1.885 million – which, despite the big weekly increase, is right in […]

March manufacturing production also shows evidence of tariff front-running

 – by New Deal democrat The former King of Coincident Indicators, industrial production, has faded ever since the “China shock” at the beginning of the Millennium. Downturns in production almost always coincided with the onset of recessions beforehand. Since then, there have been several big downturns, in 2015-16, 2019, and a smaller one in 2023-24, […]

The US bond market sends a warning; has the US crossed an economic Rubicon?

 – by New Deal democrat Martin Wolf of the Financial Times has called T—-p’s tariffs “an act of warfare against the entire world.” Perhaps it is not surprising that in the past week, the entire world has responded. Among other things,  per Eric Michael Garcia, “China has suspended exports of a wide range of critical minerals and […]

Pushing Back on Trump’s Direct Attack on Legal Firms

If you have not been aware, Trump has been executing or abusing Executive Orders taking Lawyering Firms to task. Settlements: Trump reaches deals with 5 law firms, allowing them to avoid prospect of punishing executive orders | AP News — President Donald Trump announced deals Friday with five law firms that will allow them to avoid the […]

“Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads”

“You don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows,” Bob Dylan ~~~~~~~ Then, there was the White House’s new Executive Order on Wednesday concerning, of all things, “Maintaining Acceptable Water Pressure in Showerheads.” While that may sound like an Onion headline, the Order included the following clause: “Notice and comment is unnecessary because I am ordering […]

March CPI

This is the report we have been waiting for . . .  – by New Deal democrat In March, with the exception of the usual problem child of shelter, almost every other component of consumer prices was tame – except for meat and eggs. And even shelter continued to decelerate. If Jerome Powell hadn’t tied […]

“Well Here’s Another Nice Mess You Got Us Into”

I guess threatening China did not work out as well as Trump planned it to be. China walked away from the US, starting with liquefied natural gas (LNG). China has just announced a complete halt on all liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the United States. A decision made abruptly with no prior indication, no […]

Daily T—-p tariff recession watch

As outlined in Monday’s report, NDd will cover the impact of a tariff caused recession in his daily reports. Daily T—-p tariff recession watch: no evidence of hard data deterioration to start  – by New Deal democrat Are the T—-p tariffs quickly putting the US into a recession?  As I wrote yesterday, there are two daily […]

Impact of Chemicals

Contribution by R. J. Sigmund from his “environment, energy, & related news from the week ending April 5th.” Chemicals Shortly before we left Livingston County Michigan, there was a big exposé on the discovery and the amount of PFAS in the lakes and wells of the county. I have a rather lengthy piece on this […]