– by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll report separately on construction spending, also released this morning] Although manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, (it was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession), the ISM manufacturing index remains an important indicator with a 75+ year history of accurately describing […]
Lindsey Graham Asks Catholics to ‘Keep an Open Mind’ About Making Trump the Pope: ‘Has Many Upsides,’ Mediaite Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) asked Catholics and the papal conclave to “keep an open mind” about the possibility of President Donald Trump becoming the next pope on Tuesday after Trump jokingly said he would “like to be pope” following Pope Francis’ death. After […]
– by New Deal democrat I suspect we will look back on this morning’s report on jobless claims as the first concrete sign of impending recession. Initial claims rose 18,000 to 241,000, the highest since February 22. The four week moving average rose 5,500 to 226,000. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims rose 83,000 […]
– by New Deal democrat Aside from the long leading indicators I discussed in that post, GDP is a look in the rear view mirror, because it includes January and February. Personal income and spending for March, although it is part of that GDP report, is therefore more current. Like the housing data we got earlier […]
A bit of recent history for the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) Each week we send more than 50,000 complaints about financial products and services to companies for response. If another agency would be better able to assist, we’ll send it to them and let you (the consumer) know. Most companies respond within 15 days. […]
Late and brief thoughts on Trump’s assault on the independence of the Fed. It’s old news.now, but one way in which Trump assaulted norms, shocked investors, then flinched when asset prices moved was his discussion of firing the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board. To orthodox macroeconomists and also me this is an extreme heresy. […]
– by New Deal democrat This month the economic surveys by the five regional Feds which conduct them – New York, Philly, Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas – have assumed additional importance as among the likely first warnings of impacts from T—-p’s trade wars. This morning the last manufacturing survey for the month, from Dallas, was […]
I will simplify this to a manner in which I have worked in for almost 50 years. The big issues around manufacturing are the Infrastructure (bldg., machinery, etc.), Overhead, and Labor. All of which is a part of the cost of manufacturing. Typically, you will find the infrastructure to be a onetime price. Overhead has […]
– by New Deal democrat Existing home sales are not that important for forecasting purposes, since they have much less economic impact than new home sales, because the main effect is simply a change in ownership. But there has been an ongoing shortage of housing for over a decade, which was only exacerbated by the […]
– by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Another important indicator – corporate profits – tipped into negative territory this week, as Q1 profits look to be substantially below those of Q4 of last year. On the other hand, real money supply from the Fed has tipped back into positive […]