A follow up to Part I. Brief Intro: The international role of the dollar and how it does or doesn’t affect the U.S. balance of payments. Paul throws in some discussion on the foundational fallacies underlying Trump officials beliefs on trade. “A Balance of Payments Primer, Part II: The Dollar and All That“ – by […]
– by New Deal democrat The deluge of new monthly data starts tomorrow. Today there’s no significant data, so let me follow up on a point from Friday’s personal income and spending report. I never look to see what others are saying before I finish my own analysis, because I want to be as unbiased as […]
It always comes up! People could have greater savings if the funds were invested on Wall Street entities, etc. This can be true. It comes to mind though; can you afford to lose it? Will someone replace it for you if it is lost? No one will replace it for you if it is lost. […]
Real income, spending, saving, and sales continue to be expansionary – by New Deal democrat Real income and spending are two of the most important indicators of the well-being of the consumer. With the general weakening of the economy, I have been looking to see if in particular real spending on goods would sputter. Signs […]
Weekly Indicators for March 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. The most important news in high frequency data was that we now have 4 of 5 reports from regional Feds for March, and all four showed a decline from last month, and 3 […]
When I was a graduate student, it wasn’t unusual to do a postdoc in the UK or in Europe. If you wanted a permanent position in the US, though, this meant you’d have to do a second postdoc back in the US. I know of several people who took this path. Now, thanks to the […]
– by New Deal democrat This week’s look at initial jobless claims includes seasonal revisions made to the data for the last five years. Fortunately, they appear to be very minor. So let’s take our typical look. On a weekly basis, initial claims declined -1,000 to 224,000, and the four week moving average declined -4,750 to […]
Pete Hegseth was a DEI hire. GOP affirmative action to insure that incompetent alcoholics aren’t discriminated against. Here’s Mike Brock (paywalled, so no link) on the colossal blunder that is Pete Hegseth: “The core argument against DEI initiatives has always been straightforward: institutions should hire based on merit alone, without regard for demographic considerations. That […]
Lauren Egan writes . . . How Democrats faced a Joe Biden litmus test. But now could they also face a Chuck Schumer litmus test? In an interview with Politico . . . Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow (who is widely expected to announce a bid next week to replace retiring U.S. Sen. Gary Peters) said the Democratic party […]
– by New Deal democrat Last week I explored how past episodes of sharp increases in politic uncertainty, and decreases in consumer confidence, had played out in the hard data as to both production and consumption. The upshot was that consumers tended to react first, with about a one quarter delay, and producers tended to […]