– by New Deal democrat  Along with all the other reports, yesterday the JOLTS survey was updated for February. This survey decomposes the employment market into openings, hires, quits, and layoffs, and so gives a more granular view. The question over the past year has been whether they best describe a “soft landing,” or “hard” […]

Real income, spending, saving, and sales continue to be expansionary  – by New Deal democrat Real income and spending are two of the most important indicators of the well-being of the consumer. With the general weakening of the economy, I have been looking to see if in particular real spending on goods would sputter. Signs […]

but some 3+ year highs in unemployment metrics  – by New Deal democrat My question over the past year has been whether “decleration” would turn into “deterioration.” For a “soft landing,” deceleration would need to end, and the numbers stabilize, vs. continuing to deteriorate towards an actual downturn.  The verdict this month was mixed. On the […]

Economically weighted ISM indexes for February indicate continued slow growth  – by New Deal democrat Because manufacturing is now of much less importance to the economy than in the decades before the Millennium, I now use a weighted average of the ISM services index (75%) as well as manufacturing (25%) as the primary forecasting tool. […]

I am finding there are a greater degree of politics going on in economic commentaries. Maybe it was always there and I was just missing it? A bit of Paul Krugman this Wednesday morning on Global Trade and Tariffs. Trump’s threatens countries with tariffs if they do not bow to him and do as he […]