Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Housing permits and starts still rangebound, but with units under construction down almost -20%, is the last shoe finally dropping?

 – by New Deal democrat In April total permits (dark blue in the graph below) declined -69,000 on an annualized basis to 1.412 million, while the less volatile single family permits (red, right scale) number declined -50,000 to 922,000. The slightly lagging and much more volatile starts number (gray, narrow) rose 22,000 to 1.361 million annualized: […]

Real retail sales turn down in April, but continue to reflect consumers’ front-running of tariffs

 – by New Deal democrat Next up in today’s slew of data is retail sales. This is one of the most important indicators I look at, because it tells us so much about consumers, and since consumption leads employment, it gives us information about the trend in that as well. In April, nominally retail sales […]

Jobless Claims May 15 2025

Jobless claims: more of the same  – by New Deal democrat After a long data drought, there are many releases today. I’ll start with jobless claims. Initial claims were unchanged at 229,000, while the four week moving average rose 2,250 to 230,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.881 million: […]

Average and aggregate nonsupervisory real April wages continued to fuel the consumer

 – by New Deal democrat Now that we have April’s consumer inflation data, let’s update real wages for average American families. In April average hourly wages for nonsupervisory employees increased 0.3%, and aggregate payrolls for nonsupervisory employees increased 0.4%. Since CPI increased 0.2%, in real terms wages (light blue) increased 0.1% and aggregate payrolls (dark blue) […]

“Rich Get Richer” Theories

Which of Piketty’s “Rich Get Richer” Theories Matters More? – by Steve Roth Wealth Economics For to every one who has will more be given, and he will have abundance; but from him who has not, even what he has will be taken away. —Matthew 25:29, Revised Standard Version Steve Randy Waldman reminded me recently of this […]

April CPI: the second victorious report in a row

 – by New Deal democrat Last month, I wrote that the March CPI report was the one we had been waiting for for the past three years. April’s was the second one in a row. To cut to the chase, there were no major components besides shelter which qualified as “problem children,” i.e., sectors with 4.0% […]

Tariffs Make Up 1.6% of All Federal Revenue

In other words, it is not much to be chasing and probably cost us more in lost trade due to Trump’s tinkering with it to extract concessions from other countries. If you look at the chart, you can see Individual and Corporate taxes made up the bulk of the income tax receipts or federal revenue. […]

Measures of median wage growth show why consumers have still been able to outpace tariff increases

 – by New Deal democrat We’re still in a new data drought. CPI is out tomorrow, and then a slew of data on Thursday. In the meantime there is one more data point that helps explain why consumers are still powering the economy forward. The Atlanta Fed maintains a “wage tracker” that measures wage growth, […]

China Tariffs

Comment by Terry (Terrance Nilles) as taken from “Trump’s China tariff gambit is failing,” Angry Bear At the end of the day, I think the whole tariff thing is not about raising money to pay for tax cuts or to bring industry back to this country or to stop fentanyl from coming across the border. […]

Anything related to the EV battery industry concerns us if the Industry is Not Viable,

This does not surprise me. States attempting to attract business which will be in the right industry or the industry of the future. I am sure there will be more occurrences as politicians and states attempt to get ahead of the curve by attracting the right industry. Fortunately and in AZ, we have TSMC building […]