– by New Deal democrat This month the economic surveys by the five regional Feds which conduct them – New York, Philly, Richmond, Kansas City, and Dallas – have assumed additional importance as among the likely first warnings of impacts from T—-p’s trade wars.  This morning the last manufacturing survey for the month, from Dallas, was […]

I will simplify this to a manner in which I have worked in for almost 50 years. The big issues around manufacturing are the Infrastructure (bldg., machinery, etc.), Overhead, and Labor. All of which is a part of the cost of manufacturing. Typically, you will find the infrastructure to be a onetime price. Overhead has […]

 – by New Deal democrat Existing home sales are not that important for forecasting purposes, since they have much less economic impact than new home sales, because the main effect is simply a change in ownership. But there has been an ongoing shortage of housing for over a decade, which was only exacerbated by the […]

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. Another important indicator – corporate profits – tipped into negative territory this week, as Q1 profits look to be substantially below those of Q4 of last year. On the other hand, real money supply from the Fed has tipped back into positive […]

 – by New Deal democrat Jobless claims remained well behaved last week, as they increased 6,000 to 222,000. The four week moving average declined -750 to 220,250. With the typical one-week delay, continuing claims declined -37,000 to 1.841 million, at the low end of its range over the past 10 months: As usual, the YoY% […]

The Executive Order to End Voting – Joyce Vance Civil Discourse Apparently, Trump wasn’t kidding when he told people 2024 was the last election they’d ever have to vote in if he won. On March 25, 2025, he issued an executive order = “PRESERVING AND PROTECTING THE INTEGRITY OF AMERICAN ELECTIONS” – that is a vehicle for making […]

A brief 🙂 rundown on how Trump is blowing the economy up and taking us with him. For someone who wants to be in charge, he is most certainly absent. He is not taking control and giving direction to his sycophants who are floundering in different directions. The fighting amongst them damages the US as […]

 – by New Deal democrat In ordinary times, new home sales are important because while they are very noisy and heavily revised, they are the most leading of all housing metrics. They remain important even presently because they can tell us about the underlying upward or downward pressure on the economy going forward one year […]

The House Republicans’ budget resolution is now available. In it, they are proposing a cut of ~$800 billion. Almost all of the $800 billion 10-year spending cut target for the Energy and Commerce Committee would come out of Medicaid by choice. (God forbid those not being able to afford healthcare should have healthcare.) Those with […]

When a Senator is afraid to speak out on our behalf, who do we turn to then to push back? “We are all afraid,” Murkowski said, taking a long pause. “It’s quite a statement. But we are in a time and a place where I certainly have not been here before. And I’ll tell ya, […]