The Loss of Starlink Satellites in February 2022

I did a deeper investigation to get to the source of the reported loss on numerous Starlink satellites launched by Elon Musk. As reported on 3 February 2022, SpaceX launched 49 Starlink satellites, 38 of which unexpectedly deorbited. The deorbiting of the satellites was blamed on space weather. A bit of explanation on Space weather:

Space Weather Prediction Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Space Weather describes the variations in the space environment between the sun and Earth. In particular. Space Weather describes the phenomena impacting systems and technologies in orbit and on Earth. Space weather can occur anywhere from the surface of the sun to the surface of Earth. As a space weather storm leaves the sun, it passes through the corona and into the solar wind. When it reaches Earth, it energizes Earth’s magnetosphere and accelerates electrons and protons down to Earth’s magnetic field lines where they collide with the atmosphere and ionosphere, particularly at high latitudes. Each component of space weather impacts a different technology. A description of some of the space weather impacts can be found at Space Weather Impacts.

What the study (The Loss of Starlink Satellites) determines is “what contributed” to the deorbiting of the satellites. The authors provided a “plan- language” determination of findings which I have added below. More detail in a technical manner can be found using the link in the title.

“The Loss of Starlink Satellites in February 2022: How Moderate Geomagnetic Storms Can Adversely Affect Assets in Low‐Earth Orbit – Baruah – 2024, Space Weather – Wiley Online Library

Plain Language Summary

Human society is becoming increasingly dependent on satellites at Low Earth Orbit (LEO) which cater to Earth observations, telecommunications, navigation and defense needs. The impact of space weather–changing environmental conditions in space governed by the Sun–at Low Earth Orbits is only beginning to be appreciated. The loss of an unprecedented number of Starlink satellites after their launch on 3 February 2022, which was attributed to space weather, is a case in point. Surprisingly, solar magnetic storms and space weather conditions around the time of the launch of the Starlink satellites were quite modest, making it challenging to establish physical causality. Here we utilize a multipronged approach based on observations of solar magnetic storms, near‐Earth environmental conditions and novel computer simulations to establish causality between the prevailing space environmental conditions at LEO and the loss of the satellites. Our comprehensive analysis reveals that the loss of the satellites was due to a combination of factors including prevalent space weather conditions, an insertion at a relatively high‐density LEO and possibly enhanced drag due to orientation changes of the satellites accentuated by a relatively high drag to inertia ratio

“Baruah, Y., Roy, S., Sinha, S., Palmerio, E., Pal, S., Oliveira, D. M., & Nandy, D. (2024). The loss of Starlink satellites in February 2022: How moderate geomagnetic storms can adversely affect assets in low‐earth orbit. Space Weather, 22, e2023SW003716. https://doi.org/10. 1029/2023SW003716”