Juan Cole debunks myths about Iran
Juan Cole is Richard P. Mitchell Collegiate Professor of History at the University of Michigan. He is fluent in Arabic, Persian and Urdu, and Turkish as well as several European languages. Since he allows reposts of his blog content on social media, I’m going to exceed the fair use limit in quoting him here. To read the rest, the link is at the bottom.
“Top Things You Still Think You Know About Iran that are Not True
“Belief: Iran is aggressive and has threatened to attack Israel, its neighbors or the US
“Reality: Iran has not launched an aggressive war in modern history (unlike the US or Israel), and its leaders have a doctrine of “no first strike.” This is true of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as well as of Revolutionary Guards commanders.
“Belief: Iran is a militarized society bristling with dangerous weapons and a growing threat to world peace.
“Reality: Iran’s military budget in recent years has expanded from $10 billion a year around $15 billion annually, making it 25th in the world for such expenditures and putting it in the same range as Singapore and Uruguay. Algeria and Turkiye spend more, and Israel spends twice as much.
“Belief: Iran has threatened to attack Israel militarily and to “wipe it off the map.”
“Reality: Iran’s leaders have often warned Israel that an attack would be met with a strong response. No Iranian leader in the executive had threatened a first-strike, aggressive act of war on Israel, since this would contradict the doctrine of ‘no first strike’ to which the country has adhered.
“Belief: But didn’t President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad (in office 2005-2013) threaten to ‘wipe Israel off the map?’
“Reality: President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did quote Ayatollah Khomeini (d. 1988) to the effect that “this Occupation regime over Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time” (in rezhim-e eshghalgar-i Qods bayad as safheh-e ruzgar mahv shavad). This was not a pledge to roll tanks and invade or to launch missiles, however. It is the expression of a hope that the regime will collapse, just as the Soviet Union did. It is not a threat to kill anyone at all.
“Belief: But aren’t Iranians Holocaust deniers?
“Actuality: Some are, some aren’t. Former president Mohammad Khatami has castigated Ahmadinejad for questioning the full extent of the Holocaust, which he called “the crime of Nazism.” Many educated Iranians in the regime are perfectly aware of the horrors of the Holocaust.
“Belief: Iran is like North Korea in having an active nuclear weapons program, and is the same sort of threat to the world.
“Actuality: Iran has long had a nuclear enrichment site at Natanz near Isfahan where it said it was producing fuel for its Bushehr nuclear energy plant and for future civilian nuclear reactors to generate electricity. All Iranian leaders denied that this site was for weapons production, and the International Atomic Energy Agency repeatedly inspected it over the decades and found no weapons program. Iran is not being completely transparent, generating some doubts, but all the evidence the IAEA and the CIA can gather points to there not being a weapons program.
“Belief: Isn’t the Iranian regime irrational and crazed, so that a doctrine of mutually assured destruction just would not work with them?
“Actuality: Iranian politicians are rational actors. If they were madmen, why haven’t they invaded any of their neighbors? Saddam Hussein of Iraq invaded both Iran and Kuwait. Israel has invaded its neighbors more than once, most recently Syria. In contrast, Iran has not started any wars.
Debunking myths about Iran
David Cole fails to refer to Iranian proxies (Hamas, Hezbollah) who have attacked Israel so I think it is naive to portray Iran as faultless in the interaction with Israel. That does not mean, however, that one should support Israel’s actions here, Its actions in Gaza are definitely overreactions despite the fact that Hamas’ actions were outrageous. Blaming Gaza’s civilian population and mercilessly attacking them is also outrageous. Nothing in the middle east is clear and straightforward including Israel’s behavior.
@Jack,
It’s Juan Cole, not David Cole.
Yes, I noted the omission of Hezbollah. Hamas is more complicated. While it has been supported by Iran, Israel encouraged Qatar to give aid to Hamas, and approved the transfer of money from Qatar to Hamas. As you say, there are no heroes here.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/for-years-netanyahu-propped-up-hamas-now-its-blown-up-in-our-faces/
Nevertheless, Prof. Cole’s points are fair. Israel directly attacked Iran. Full stop. Had Israel acted through proxies, the analogy to Iran-Hezbollah would have been valid.
Sorry about the name. Probably the Chicago heat induced carelessness. Netanyahu’s support of Hamas for his own political purposes is too often overlooked.
“Why haven’t they invaded any of their neighbors” sigh because the IRGC’s preferred method of colonization involves taking over nations from within via civil wars rather than direct military invasion, and that is why Iraq/Syria/Lebanon/Yemen to various degrees are/were colonies of the Iranian regime, and why over a million people died during those wars fueled by Iran.
Separately, you will also note they kept the war with Iraq in the 1980s going for years beyond what was needed to repel the initial attack, and that they had a habit of clearing minefields by sending children to walk through them.
“IAEA found no weapons programs” sigh last week they found Iran out of compliance with the NPT, meaning slow breakout to weaponization was likely/possible.
“Iran doesn’t spend as much money on the military so thus they aren’t a threat” sigh are we still seriously doing this? PPP adjustments, hidden IRGC expenditures, the different costs of producing Shahed drones vs Iron Dome interceptors, etc. This is a weak argument for “they aren’t a threat”
The “proxies” are not just various units that the IRGC sorta kinda allied with out of convenience (with a slight exception for Hamas). Many of them are direct extensions of the IRGC and have utterly destabilized their various host countries. This war was started by the Iranian network in Oct 2023 and already included direct ballistic missile strikes on Israel from Iran back in 2024 anyways.
Many of his other arguments are just “if you translate them a particular way they totally don’t really mean the aggressive stuff they say, “Death to America” is just a joke and we shouldn’t believe them”.
Juan Cole has always been like this when it comes to Israel. There may be arguments to be made for or against this current offensive, but his article is an exercise in bad faith and should be ignored.
@Brian,
“. . . last week they found Iran out of compliance with the NPT”
Yes, in the sense that they no longer allow inspections. But that’s not evidence for breakout or building a weapon. I’m old enough to remember the Bush Administration lies about Iraqi WMDs. I wasn’t fooled then and I’m not fooled now. YMMV. Of course, Israel is one of the few countries that has never signed the NPT, so it can’t be deemed out of compliance.
“. . . his article is an exercise in bad faith and should be ignored.”
And your comment is full of weak arguments, innuendo and bad history. But I won’t necessarily conclude that it’s in bad faith.
I’ve been reading Juan Cole for years. I’m confident he knows more about Iran, Israel and the Middle East than you do. That doesn’t mean I believe everything he writes, but you’ll have to do a much better job of rebutting him before you’ll convince me that he should be ignored.