Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Another Look at the Mueller Report

Excellent recital of what was in the Mueller report as told by Joyce Vance. Joyce was also a part of the Mueller investigation. Bob Mueller’s legacy to us was uncovering the truth when it was difficult to do so and holding people accountable. All of which various political figures did their best to block the […]

What are the Economic risks with Iran?

About a seven-minute read: Gasoline prices in AZ, (in the part where I live) as of late March 2026, are high. They average around $4.21 per gallon for regular, with some locations exceeding $4.39. Prices have surged significantly, following broader metro Phoenix trends, with options ranging from $4.159 at Circle K and QuikTrip to higher […]

Updating the K.I.S.S. estimate of the coming shock in CPI

 – by New Deal democrat There’s no big economic data today, so let me update something I posted last week, in which I warned readers to expect a shock in the next CPI report.  I wrote that “based on past history and using conservative assumptions, the model forecasts a 1.8% increase in CPI between March and […]

water security and food production

In Arizona, we are starting to see many proposals for data centers, Chip, etc. and similar manufacturers. It is interesting as there is a lot of obvious large building going on in Arizona. I would not think there is a lot of natural resource available to sustain the type of industry coming to Arizona. It […]

The bond market sends an unprecedented message

 – by New Deal democrat Something not just unusual, but unprecedented has happened in the bond market this year. Normally, when an inverted yield curve (where earlier maturing bonds yield more than later maturing ones) regularizes, or un-inverts (where yields get higher the later the maturing), it is because the Fed has lowered rates sufficiently […]

American political (and military) support for Israel appears to be on borrowed time – maybe 10 years

– by New Deal democrat Occasionally on Sundays I have posted on things other than the economy. Some dramatic poll results I saw this past week called out for such a post. A popular poster over at Bluesky named Micah posted what comes pretty close to my overall view of the 2024 Presidential campaign: But […]

TDS and the economics of Trump’s war on Iran

The Trumpenproletariat loves to point to those who disagree with Dear Leader as having Trump Derangement Syndrome. But like everything they accuse others of, it’s what they’re guilty of. “A week ago I asked whether global energy markets have “Trump Derangement Syndrome.” I was being a bit arch because I didn’t mean in the sense […]