Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

January jobs report: superb monthly gains, but the birds came home to roost for 2025

– by New Deal democrat This is the month the birds came home to roost, at least for the year 2025. While the month over month numbers were almost all positive, some strongly so (a repeat of what we saw last January as well, so beware unresolved seasonality), the benchmark revisions were brutal. Which is likely […]

Rebuking Trump on tariffs is a first baby step towards rehabilitating our international reputation

Yesterday the House (barely) rejected an effort to block members from challenging Trump’s “emergency” tariffs.  The sordid details are here.  The Senate has previously taken some steps in this direction, and with Trump’s approval ratings still declining and the possibility of a mid-term wipe out looming it seems possible that we will see Congress move […]

Real retail sales turn down monthly and YoY in December, boding poorly for employment

– by New Deal democrat Real retail sales, one of my favorite broad-economy indicators, was updated through December this morning — still stale by one month, as under normal circumstances January’s numbers would have been released this week.  Still, with consumer spending being about 70% of the entire economy, this is one of the most […]

Expect shelter inflation to continue abating in the next few CPI reports

– by New Deal democrat There’s no significant economic news until Wednsday’s jobs report, as to which Scott Bessent gave an interview this morning on CNBC which amounted to, “Don’t Panic!!!” Which I am sure inspires confidence in everybody (I’ve been expecting downward revisions to much of last year as part of the annual benchmarking, so […]

More Likely than Not, the policy violates both the law and the right to due process

When you hear the term “More Likely than Not,” whoever says such is saying it is not 100%. When you heard the term, it is thought the probably of something occurring is greater than 50%. “The more likely than not’ standard establishes the measure of proof required for a party to succeed in a legal […]

Measles Denial

Heather at Crooks and Liars writing about a conversation between Robert Kennedy and Dana Bash. “Dr. Mehmet Oz’s nonsense that Robert F. Kennedy is supposedly “at the very front of” vaccine advocacy was too much for the usually passive Dana Bash to stomach. Here’s Oz trying to pretend that Kennedy isn’t a raging lunatic antivaxxer […]

Congress and Administration Move Forward on Oil & Gas Leasing

A move by the Trump administration is unneeded as yield is less than the cost of producing. Taxpayers will be paying for a government boondoggle. “two lease sales generated less than one percent of the $905 million the taxpayers were promised.” Reiterating what was going on in 2017, stopped in 2020 (Biden), and back again in 2024 […]

Newly Minted Family Billionaires

It’s good to be the president. Or at least this time around. Trump has managed to increase his worth via the presidency. Not saying this is illegal. The amount of enrichment for the Trump family is rather large. More than many presidents combined. ~~~~~~~ Press Release: “New Report Exposes the Trump Family’s Multi-Billion-Dollar Crypto Empire, […]

In Just the First Month of 2026

First saw a report on a Measles outbreak on Facebook after reviewing a fellow writer’s commentary. I do not know the Facebook author of Science and Tech Page. I did attribute the graph and subsequent words to the author Hashem Al-Ghaili. In any case, I believe it to be important to broadcast such information about […]