Real retail sales update for April 2018 It’s a slow start of the week, so let’s catch up on one of my favorite indicators, real retail sales, which were reported last week. First of all, adjusted for population, real retail sales have peaked a year or more in advance of each of the last two […]
The percentage of employees who don’t get wage raises; is the Taboo undergoing an “extinction burst”? I came across the below graph yesterday from the Kansas City Fed. It’s pretty shocking: It represents “wage rigidity.” In english, that means the percentage of employees who don’t get any annual wage increases. It speaks for itself. Nine […]
R.I.P. bond bull market, 1981-2016 On September 30, 1981, the 10 year US Treasury bond yielded 15.84%. It has not been that high since. On July 8, 2016, it fetched only 1.37%. It is unlikely to see that low rate again for a very, very long time. Those two dates likely mark the birth and […]
Real wage growth adjusted for gas prices One of the things I note from time to time in my discussions of wage growth is how much its fluctuation in real terms has been affected by gas prices. For example, in the middle of the worst recession in nearly 70 years, real wages actually went up! Why? […]
Real wages and unemployment update: April 2018 Now that we have the inflation numbers for April, let’s update the wage situation for ordinary Americans. Real wages YoY are only up +0.2%: More significantly, they are still down -0.3% from their most recent high 9 months ago:
Two real economic consequences of the Trump presidency Next week we will be 1/3 of the way through Trump’s Presidential term. Last year I used to point out that it was really still Obama’s economy, as the GOP had failed to pass, nor Trump commence, any economic policy of consequence. That is no longer the […]
March JOLTS report: powerful further evidence of a taboo against rasing wages The March JOLTS report this morning is powerful further evidence that raising wages (or training new workers) has become a taboo. Just about everyone thinks that, faced with a worker shortage, “rational” employers will offer higher wages to fill the empty skilled positions. […]
The simple jobs and interest rates model generates a yellow flag Several months ago, I started toying with a simple model of interest rates and job growth.* Based on the historical evidence, I suggested that: 1. a YoY increase in the Fed funds rate equal to the YoY% change in job growth has in the past almost […]
Gimme shelter Q1 2018 update: rents and house prices all at or near new extremes This post is a comprehensive update as to the cost of new and existing homes vs. renting, all measured compared with median household income. As such it is epistolary in length. So here is the TL:DR version: as a multiple […]
March 2018 personal income and spending Programming note: I’ve been working on a mega-post about housing, that is now complete except for a few graphs. So, please excuse the brevity otherwise. March 2018 real personal income and spending were both positive. So far, so good. The personal saving rate fell slightly: Again, this is consistent […]