by New Deal democrat Don’t sweat the Q3 2017 job losses As an initial matter, this is a good time to remind you that the data is the data is the data. It’s not partisan. I’ve seen some of the same people who were touting “It’s still Obama’s economy” all last year (and I agree […]
by New Deal democrat Q1 2018 GDP downshifts slightly; long leading indicators mixed This morning’s preliminary reading of Q1 2018 GDP at +2.3%, down from the previous quarter’s +2.9%, was generally in line with forecasts. As usual, my attention is focused less on where we *are* than where we *will be* in the months and […]
Demographics, housing, and the economy Way back during the Great Recession, I first noted that demographics were about to become a tailwind for the housing market. The argument, in its simplest terms, is that the median age of first time home buyers is about 30, and the nadir of the “baby bust” was 1973-76. That […]
The consumer edges closer to the precipice In addition to my “long leading/short leading” model adapted from the work of Profs. Geoffrey Moore and Edward Leamer, and the “high frequency” weekly variation on the same, I also have several “alternate” recession forecasting models. The most noteworthy model is really a consumer nowcast. It turns on consumers […]
Higher wage growth for job switchers: more evidence of a taboo against raising wages? Yesterday the Atlanta Fed published a note touting the wage growth for those who quit their jobs and transfer to a different line of work, writing that: Although wages haven’t been rising faster for the median individual, they have been for those […]
Is the US economy booming? April 2018 update Back in January, I asked if the economy was “booming.” There’s no official definition, but based on my recollection of the two periods I have lived through that felt like booms, the1960s and late 1990s, the two times in my life that the feel of an economic […]
February 2018 JOLTS report: positive trend revised away Last month I wrote that the January JOLTS report reflected very positive trends. Today they got revised away. As a refresher, unlike the jobs report, which tabulates the net gain or loss of hiring over firing, the JOLTS report breaks the labor market down into openings, hirings, […]
A thought for Sunday: The Abyss always looks back, Presidential polling edition A point I have made about economic forecasting a number of times is that one can be an excellent forecaster, so long as one is a bug on the wall. Once a significant number of people begin to follow *and act upon* the […]
(Dan here…I have highlighted NDd’s conclusion. This is a long post but worth thinking about…) So in conclusion, while I have no doubt that the “monopsony” argument is measuring something real, I am more and more inclined to believe that raising wages is simply becoming an ideological taboo among businesses, a higher priority than maximizing […]
March jobs report: surprisingly weak HEADLINES: +103,000 jobs added U3 unemployment rate unchanged at 4.1% U6 underemployment rate fell -0.2% from 8.2% to 8.0% Here are the headlines on wages and the chronic heightened underemployment: Wages and participation rates Not in Labor Force, but Want a Job Now: fell -35,000 from 5.131 million to 5.096 […]