Coronavirus dashboard for June 29: renewed exponential growth in infections, decline in deaths has stalled Total US infections: 2,549,069, 42,161 in last day Total US deaths: 125,803, 273 in last day Here is the regional breakdown of the 7 day average of new cases per capita: There is renewed exponential growth in the South and […]
The US Presidential election as forecast by State polling: tending towards a Biden blowout? Last week I posted a projection of the Electoral College vote based solely on State rather than national polls (since after all that is how the College operates) that have been reported in the last 30 days. There has been extensive […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 27: infections -> hospitalizations -> deaths Total US infections: 2,480,786, 44,373 new cases Total US deaths: 125,120, 619 new deathsA quandary over the past month has been why deaths declined so much more than new cases, while cases were declining; and more recently why deaths have continued to decline in the […]
All 4 coincident indicators of recession improved in May vs. April With this morning’s release of personal income and spending, we now have all 4 coincident indicators for May that the NBER uses to determine whether the economy is in a recession or recovery/expansion. And all 4 improved from their “most horrible” readings in April. […]
Initial jobless claims improve slightly; continuing claims resume decline Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus on employment. More than three full months after the initial shock, the overall damage remains huge, with large spreading new secondary impacts. The positive news is […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 23: focusing on deaths, and the Trumpist South and Southwest Confirmed total US infections: 2,312,302. (+31,433 in past 24 hours) Confirmed total US deaths: 120,402 (+425 in past 24 hours) We know that new cases are accelerating again. Is it translating into an increase in deaths? The answer appears to be: […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 22: a pandemic newly focused on the young appears to be changing the dynamics Confirmed US coronavirus infections: 2,280,969 Confirmed US coronavirus deaths: 119,977 The 7 day average of new infections in the US has risen 30% from its low of 20,357 on June 9 to 26,546 yesterday: On a per […]
The 2020 Presidential election as forecast by State polling As we all know, in the US Presidential election national polls are of limited use, as the election is actually decided on a State by State basis. I’ve seen lots of projections of the Electoral College vote based on national polls, but what if we go […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 19: infections and hospitalizations have increased; it may be too late for Arizona Let’s start with the basics: total US coronavirus infections are 2,191,371. Total US deaths from coronavirus are 118,436. Those are official numbers; the real numbers are obviously higher. The number of daily new infections averaged over a week […]
New and continued jobless claims level off, as spreading secondary impacts and job recalls balance Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus on employment. Three full months after the initial shock, the overall damage remains huge, with recalls to work roughly balanced […]