Coronavirus dashboard for June 22: a pandemic newly focused on the young appears to be changing the dynamics
Coronavirus dashboard for June 22: a pandemic newly focused on the young appears to be changing the dynamics
Confirmed US coronavirus infections: 2,280,969
Confirmed US coronavirus deaths: 119,977
The 7 day average of new infections in the US has risen 30% from its low of 20,357 on June 9 to 26,546 yesterday:
On a per capita basis, US infections are now roughly 4x those in Europe:
Curiously, the 7 day average of deaths has continued to decline, to 605 as of yesterday:
On a per capita basis, US deaths from coronavirus are only 2x those in Europe:
Within the US, the per capita rate of infections has continued to fall in the Northeast megalopolis, risen slightly in the Midwest, but is rising at what may be exponential rates in the South and West:
The poster child for confirmed new exponential spread remains Arizona, which now has a rate of new infections 2/3’s that of NY at its peak, and is likely to match that within a week:
The remaining “top 10” for new infections per capita are all from the Confederacy, plus Utah – and they are also all rising, in the 100 to 160 new cases per million per day range.
When it comes to deaths, however, the “top 10” are almost all from the Northeast megalopolis, led by Massachusetts, but they are in serious decline:
Only Arizona from the new outbreaks has risen into the “top 10” for deaths.
The continued decline in new deaths may just be a lag in the data, but there are several other possibilities as well:
– better hospital treatment
– shutting down nursing home spread (since nursing homes were responsible for over 1/3 of all deaths in the first several months of the pandemic.
Perhaps most significantly, the paradox may be explained by the average *age* of those newly infected. The evidence is, it has dropped precipitously.
Unfortunately, I failed to copy the graph I saw of the total US statistic for that measure, but here is an age-breakdown for US testing and % positive:
Those in age group 18-49 years saw a much bigger increase in tests administered, and less of a decline in the % positive – meaning a higher rate of diagnosed infections in that age group.
Here is the age breakdown for Mississippi:
And here is a chart of the age breakdown for Maricopa County, Arizona:
The shifts in demographics have been recorded in parts of Florida, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas and other states — many of which were some of the first to reopen.And while some officials have pointed to more widespread testing being done, others say the new cases stem from Americans failing to social distance.
In Mississippi, where one health officer called adherence to social distancing over the past weeks “overwhelmingly disappointing,” officials attributed clusters of new cases to fraternity rush parties.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott said last week that people under 30 made up a majority of new coronavirus cases in several counties. He said that increase in young infected people could be related to Memorial Day parties, visits to bars or other gatherings.
And in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis said Friday that the median age was 37 for newly diagnosed coronavirus cases over the last week. In the state, 62% of new cases for the week of June 7 are under 45 years old, he said.
“That is a big change from where we were at the end of March and the beginning of April. It was skewing much older at that time,” he said.
As California’s economy opens up, coronavirus cases are getting younger and younger.An analysis released this week reveals that more than 44% of new diagnoses are in people age 34 or younger, up from 29% a month ago.
There’s a corresponding drop in cases among older people. The proportion of COVID-19 cases among Californians older than 50 has plummeted from 46% to 30.5% in the past month.
The proportion of cases among middle-aged Californians — ages 35 to 49 — has plateaued, neither rising nor falling.
“It is striking that there is such a strong shift. Cases are much younger now than they were earlier in the pandemic,” said infectious disease epidemiologist George Lemp, who calculated the trends using historical data from the California Department of Public Health.
“It may reflect the opening up of California since mid-May, particularly among younger people who may have started to move away from the practices of social distancing and consistent mask use,” he said.
IMHO it is all about sex. If you are older and have a partner it is not so bad to self quarantine and limit your outside activities, but if you are young and single the urge to find someone to have sex with tends to overwhelm other considerations. Consider the AIDS pandemic in the gay community. Everyone knew by the early 80’s that having unprotected sex especially gay sex might kill you but the pandemic raged on for years. I suspect that some of the aversion to wearing masks is also sexual in nature. It is hard to catch someone’s attention with just eye contact if you can not use a smile to go with it. Indeed while the moron in chief certainly refuses to wear a mask because of some sort of warped machismo, I suspect the biggest reason is his narcissistic delusion that he is attractive to women because of his looks. Of course, younger people also want to get back to work but most are smart enough to know that willing the virus away is not going to work.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
June 23, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 2,395,832)
Deaths ( 122,750)
UK
Cases ( 306,210)
Deaths ( 42,927)
Germany
Cases ( 192,429)
Deaths ( 8,977)
Canada
Cases ( 101,902)
Deaths ( 8,453)
Sweden
Cases ( 60,837)
Deaths ( 5,161)
China
Cases ( 83,418)
Deaths ( 4,634)
For young people, even if it is not about sex, it is not about politics the way it is with older folks. Lots of young people who would never vote for Trump simply don’t get real news. Even if they know someone who died, they are also still likely to think it can’t happen to them.
Permanently damaged lung/heart for young people is the big SARS threat.
Spending time in air conditioned spaces during summer increases exposure.
It looks like Southern states in which summer is unbearable without air-conditioning are primed for COVID-19 spikes.
In any cases we probably should be looking at the dynamics of the number of deaths per 100K, not the total number of positive tests. So graphs should augmented with those data which are flaky but still better then the total number of positive tests as they better correlate with the number of cases of virus pneumonia confirmed by CT-scans (“real” COVID-19 cases).
In any case, the way COVID-19 affects the nation is via cases of virus pneumonia. All other cases are simply noise and concentrating on them is fearmongering.
In other words, publishing total number of positive test graphs is a fools gold. Deaths or “severe cases” metric should be used instead,
As for young people — how many of them are morbidly obese? The latter is the real epidemic in the USA, which coronavirus simply exposed. When I see 300+ pound female trying to get out of the car and then with great difficulties to move a few steps toward a shop or a restaurant I think it is amazing that the current civilization allow such people to survive and sometimes even have children.
@Bert Schlitz, June 23, 2020 1:29 pm
> Permanently damaged lung/heart for young people is the big SARS threat.
True. Damage to the lungs in severe cases is substantial and probably only partially reversible, although much depends on individual and his/her age.
But even in very young persons this areas of ground glass opacities disappear very slowly, and probably never completely. The older person is the more permanent damage is inflicted by COVID-19 pneumonia.
https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/ground-glass-opacities-covid-19
BTW since May, 2020 the US army now does not accept any person who had a severe case of COVID-19.
NOTE: “bood tests” in the quote above means antibodies test.
“In any case, the way COVID-19 affects the nation is via cases of virus pneumonia. All other cases are simply noise and concentrating on them is fearmongering.”
Since people without pneumonia can give the virus to people who will get pneumonia, you have oversimplified.
@Arne, June 23, 2020 3:38 pm
True. It’s more complex. Virus mainly spread in family clusters, so the total number of new cases correlates well with the danger for seniors.
Still cases of virus pneumonia is more valuable metric by any standard.
“Spending time in air conditioned spaces during summer increases exposure.”
interesting observation, Likbez; that would also account for the summertime decrease in cases in the north, which had their peaks in cold weather when people were also couped up inside…
now, how to account for the runaway outbreaks in India & Brazil, where it’s warm all the time but air conditioning’s penetration is minimal…unless you want to say that Modi and Bolsonaro have so much in common with Trump and Boris Johnson that a similar outcome in those countries was inevitable…
June 23, 2020
Coronavirus
US
Cases ( 2,420,107)
Deaths ( 123,411)
UK
Cases ( 306,210)
Deaths ( 42,927)
Germany
Cases ( 192,665)
Deaths ( 8,986)
Canada
Cases ( 101,905)
Deaths ( 8,453)
Sweden
Cases ( 60,837)
Deaths ( 5,161)
June 23, 2020
Coronavirus (Deaths per million)
Belgium ( 838)
UK ( 632)
Spain ( 606)
Italy ( 573)
Sweden ( 511)
France ( 455)
US ( 373)
Netherlands ( 356)
Ireland ( 348)
Switzerland ( 226)
Canada ( 224)
Luxembourg ( 176)
Portugal ( 151)
Germany ( 107)
Denmark ( 104)
Austria ( 77)
Finland ( 59)
Norway ( 46)
Greece ( 18)
https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-06-23/Why-have-meat-factories-become-hotbeds-for-coronavirus-outbreaks–RyERNDEg1O/index.html
June 23, 2020
COVID-19 Global Roundup: Why have meat factories become hotbeds for coronavirus outbreaks?
By Yang Xuemin
Within months of the first meat factory outbreak in the U.S., European meat processing plants have become hotspots for the coronavirus.
Recently, more than 1,029 employees at a meat processing plant in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany tested positive for the novel coronavirus. In the UK, the outbreak has emerged in at least three meat plants, which have closed after about 250 workers tested positive for the coronavirus.
Earlier this month, the Farm Animal Investment Risk and Return Initiative (FAIRR) listed over 44 of the 60 largest meat, fish and dairy companies across the world as “high risk” companies regarding the safety of food and employees in its report titled An industry infected: Animal agriculture in a post-COVID world…. *
* https://www.fairr.org/article/industry-infected/
Terry has a point about sex. I remember the outcry when they shut down the bath houses in NYC and it wasn’t about not getting to hear Bette Midler’s latest. Younger people are more likely to be searching for sexual partners, but there’s also money. Younger people are more likely to be financially precarious and do those essential, low pay, no benefits jobs that can’t be done from home. There’s no UBI for them the way there is for over 65s.