The Coronavirus Recession may already (technically) have ended: sales and production both increased in May – by New Deal democrat Sales and production are two of the four things that economists look for in gauging whether the economy is in expansion or recession, and this morning both of them – retail sales and industrial production […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 12: the costs of recklessly reopening begin to come due – by New Deal democrat It is pretty clear now that in general those States (but not all) which left lockdowns the earliest and with the most lax continuing restrictions are suffering renewed outbreaks of the coronavirus, *possibly* in several cases […]
Initial jobless claims decline further, but continuing claims fail to make meaningful progress – by New Deal democrat Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus to the average worker. Twelve weeks after calamity first struck, the theme remains “less awful.” First, here are […]
May inflation steadies: meanwhile, an artificial all time high in “real” wages – by New Deal democrat In May, overall consumer prices declined by -0.1% (blue in the graph below), while consumer prices excluding energy (gas) rose +0.1% (red): Note that in 2015 when gas prices collapsed, prices otherwise continued to increase, showing the underlying […]
Coronavirus update for June 8: declining trend in new infections has stopped – by New Deal democrat I haven’t updated the Coronavirus Dashboard in awhile. Last time I indicated I would do so if there was a significant change in trend. Well, there has been. New infections are not declining anymore. In the last week, the […]
Echoes and contrasts with 1968 – by New Deal democrat As I mention from time to time, I am a fossil. I am old enough to remember 1968, when I was a politically precocious teenybopper. In the past week, I have read a number of commentaries wondering if this year is similar. In short: yes. […]
May jobs report: a welcome positive shock – by New Deal democrat HEADLINES: 2,509,000 million jobs added. This makes up about 12% of the 22.1 million job losses in March and April. U3 unemployment rate improved 1.4% to 13.3%, compared with the January low of 3.5%. U6 underemployment rate improved 1.6% to 21.2%, compared with the […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 2: the US has settled into a depressing status quo – by New Deal democrat The US seems to have settled into a status quo where it accepts 20,000 new coronavirus infections and 1,500 deaths each day. This is what I forecast about a month ago, as lockdown regimens were abandoned in […]
Coronavirus dashboard for May 31: comparing US States and regions with European countries – by New Deal democrat Among all countries in the world, Sweden has the worst death rate from coronavirus: 5.9 per million per day over the past week. But, even with massive declines from their peaks, most of the States in the US’s […]
April personal income and spending: considering the extreme circumstances, a good report April personal income and spending, reported this morning, showed the impact of both the lock downs and the stimulus that was passed by the Congress. To cut to the chase, spending in real inflation-adjusted terms declined -13% (red), while real income rose 11%(blue): […]