The 2020 Presidential election as forecast by State polling As we all know, in the US Presidential election national polls are of limited use, as the election is actually decided on a State by State basis. I’ve seen lots of projections of the Electoral College vote based on national polls, but what if we go […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 19: infections and hospitalizations have increased; it may be too late for Arizona Let’s start with the basics: total US coronavirus infections are 2,191,371. Total US deaths from coronavirus are 118,436. Those are official numbers; the real numbers are obviously higher. The number of daily new infections averaged over a week […]
New and continued jobless claims level off, as spreading secondary impacts and job recalls balance Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus on employment. Three full months after the initial shock, the overall damage remains huge, with recalls to work roughly balanced […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 17: the second wave of the tsunami comes ashore As of yesterday, there were 2,137,731 total documented coronavirus infections in the US. Total known deaths were 116,963. As I have stated several times in the past month, I believe that coronavirus infections and deaths will wax and wane around the April-May […]
The Coronavirus Recession may already (technically) have ended: sales and production both increased in May – by New Deal democrat Sales and production are two of the four things that economists look for in gauging whether the economy is in expansion or recession, and this morning both of them – retail sales and industrial production […]
Coronavirus dashboard for June 12: the costs of recklessly reopening begin to come due – by New Deal democrat It is pretty clear now that in general those States (but not all) which left lockdowns the earliest and with the most lax continuing restrictions are suffering renewed outbreaks of the coronavirus, *possibly* in several cases […]
Initial jobless claims decline further, but continuing claims fail to make meaningful progress – by New Deal democrat Weekly initial and continuing jobless claims give us the most up-to-date snapshot of the continuing economic impacts of the coronavirus to the average worker. Twelve weeks after calamity first struck, the theme remains “less awful.” First, here are […]
May inflation steadies: meanwhile, an artificial all time high in “real” wages – by New Deal democrat In May, overall consumer prices declined by -0.1% (blue in the graph below), while consumer prices excluding energy (gas) rose +0.1% (red): Note that in 2015 when gas prices collapsed, prices otherwise continued to increase, showing the underlying […]
Coronavirus update for June 8: declining trend in new infections has stopped – by New Deal democrat I haven’t updated the Coronavirus Dashboard in awhile. Last time I indicated I would do so if there was a significant change in trend. Well, there has been. New infections are not declining anymore. In the last week, the […]
Echoes and contrasts with 1968 – by New Deal democrat As I mention from time to time, I am a fossil. I am old enough to remember 1968, when I was a politically precocious teenybopper. In the past week, I have read a number of commentaries wondering if this year is similar. In short: yes. […]